HC Deb 29 March 1995 vol 257 cc987-94 1.30 pm
Mr. Cynog Dafis (Ceredigion and Pembroke, North)

I am pleased to have the opportunity to open a debate on this subject. As the first conference of the parties to the Rio climate change convention begins its deliberations in Berlin, it has become clear that accelerating global warming, resulting from human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases, is a reality.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—IPCC—is convinced that its earlier predictions were accurate, and that, unless action is taken, mean global temperature will rise by about 3 deg by the year 2100. That calculation is based on the conservative assumption that fossil fuel burning will increase by 1 per cent. per annum over the next 50 years.

That will probably lead to a rise in sea level of about 45 cm, causing the inundation of large areas of land, including some entire island countries, with unpredictable effects on the weather and the spread of diseases, with possibly disastrous effects on agriculture and thus on the fate of entire populations, and with a catastrophic loss of species and of biodiversity.

Everyone knows that there have recently been attempts to rubbish the global warming theory, some emanating from powerful industrial vested interests. Bert Bolin, the IPCC chairman, acknowledges that there has been an increasing polarisation of public debate, but insists that that is not a reflection of a similar change among experts. It is important to emphasise that the IPCC's most recent report had 25 main authors from 11 countries, and drew on a draft text from 120 authors, whose work was reviewed by more than 230 other people from 31 countries. The global warming theory is no mere nine days wonder.

There is another kind of sceptic too. The commentator Frances Cairncross, writing in yesterdays edition of The Independent, acknowledged that global warming might be happening but suggested that the costs of action to arrest it might be greater than the benefits, so, because of the uncertainty, it would be better to delay action until the countries of the world were richer and had the resources to ameliorate its effects.

Frances Cairncross quoted the American economist William Cline, who argues: the benefits of taking action do not overtake the costs until about 2150. Mr. Cline is obviously into cost-benefit analysis, which is, to put it mildly, a highly suspect process that ascribes monetary values to just about everything, including human lives, in order to determine what action should or should not be taken in particular circumstances.

The IPCC itself has economists, some funded by United Kingdom public moneys, working on cost-benefit analysis in relation to global warming. In my view the work that they are doing should be profoundly questioned. Typically, they base their valuation of anything on its potential for economic production. By that methodology the Maldives, home to 177,000 people, are worth far less than, say, the City of London, and an extensive area of Bangladeshi agricultural land is worth less than a single American automobile factory.

Thus, typically, it is argued that the loss to American GDP caused by reducing automobile production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would be greater than the gain in saving Bangladeshi farmland on which thousands of people depend for subsistence. In cost-benefit analysis, such conclusions are seriously defended.

Mr. Jon Owen Jones (Cardiff, Central)

Is it taken into account in cost-benefit analysis that, if most of Bangladesh is flooded, its population will presumably try to escape into neighbouring countries, and that under the pressure of that huge immigration, warfare and disruption are likely in those other countries?

Mr. Dafis

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for pointing that out, and I doubt whether cost-benefit analysis has the sophistication to conduct such complex modelling that goes well beyond the immediate costs. However, I am trying to show that it is a basically flawed way of approaching the subject in the first place.

Worse than what I have already said is the fact that IPCC economists are now ascribing differential monetary values to human lives—a Bangladeshi life, for example, being worth about one tenth of an American or a western European life—and then feeding calculations based on such valuations into the consideration of whether particular actions are cost effective.

Such obscene ideas—I could even call them blasphemous—could become a serious impediment to progress in climate change negotiations. The Indian Minister responsible for the environment and forests wrote a letter to a number of Governments, including that of the United Kingdom. I know that the Minister has seen a copy of it, and I shall quote from it: In my judgment, the present impasse became inevitable when the alleged cost-effectiveness of Joint Implementation was sought to be based on absurd and discriminatory Global Cost/Benefit Analysis procedures propounded by economists in the work of IPCC Working Group III … We unequivocally reject the theory that the monetary value of peoples lives around the world is different because the value imputed should be proportional to the disparate income levels of the potential victims concerned. The Minister then moved on to a linked although distinct issue: To compound the problem, global damage assessments are being expressed in US dollar equivalent. Thus the monetary significance of damages to developing countries is substantially under-represented. Damage to human beings, whether in developed or in developing countries, must be treated as equal, and cannot be translated in terms of currency exchange rate systems. Finally, and powerfully and importantly, the Minister says: Faced with this we feel that this level of misdirection must be purged from the negotiation process. The distributional issue of unequal-rights-by-income versus equal-rights-per capita must be resolved to enable fruitful discussions about possible protocols to the Convention, proportionality of commitments and financial mechanisms. I certainly agree with that, and I am fairly confident that you do too, Mr. Deputy Speaker. I am also confident that the Minister will give us an assurance that the United Kingdom delegation shares the view of the Indian Government and will act accordingly.

The economists may have a role. Let them help to identify the policies necessary to achieve environmental sustainability, and elaborate on the changed patterns of economic activity that sustainability would imply. Let them offer costings for such measures. That is the scope of their expertise, and they should stick to it.

Assuming that such nonsense is purged from the negotiation process, what should the outcome of the conference be for it to be regarded as a success? There must be targets for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions beyond the year 2000. The stabilisation of emissions is nowhere near sufficient to stabilise the concentrations in the atmosphere, and it is the concentrations that count.

The IPCC is standing by its 1990 claim that to stabilise carbon dioxide concentrations at current levels, humanity must cut global carbon dioxide emissions by 60 per cent. globally, and that has implications for greater reductions in the northern developed countries. Bearing that in mind, the Association of Small Island States—which comprises 36 countries—has demanded that a protocol be added to the convention which sets a target for carbon dioxide reductions of 20 per cent. for industrialised countries by the year 2005. As a first step, that seems to be modest indeed. That, of course, is the Toronto target, which has already been incorporated into the national plans of eight industrialised countries. AOSIS has the backing of the G77 group in Berlin.

Meanwhile, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries—driven by a short-term interpretation of its material self-interest—is opposing any reduction in the targets at all. That is why the rules and procedures adopted are so important. A requirement for unanimity in setting targets would be fatal, and I understand that the Government will be strongly supporting majority voting. I hope that the Minister can confirm that. The negotiations and the drafting process are continuing on the assumption that majority voting will apply, but a decision on the consensus process and the majority voting issue will have to be made at next Mondays plenary session.

At the very least, the minimum that should emerge from the conference is a negotiating process to establish emission reductions which will be finally agreed at the next conference. The poorer countries are naturally demanding that the industrial countries, which are responsible for the problem—America is responsible for 24 per cent. of carbon dioxide emissions on its own—take the lead.

There is suspicion among the G77 countries concerning the idea of joint implementation, whereby twinned industrialised and underdeveloped countries would agree a joint reduction target and plan. It is important that that should not become a licence for high emissions from industrialised countries which inhibit the development of the underdeveloped countries and hold back their hopes of achieving an improvement in their quality of life. Will the UK delegation push for the IPCC secretariat to be required to verify and monitor any joint implementation schemes?

The Government have made much of their claimed success that they will be saving between 17 million and 25 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by the year 2000, which is going beyond the 10 million tonnes target necessary for stabilising emissions at 1990 levels. Their success is largely fortuitous, and it masks the Governments failure to achieve most of the specific objectives which they set themselves in 1992, including a significant expansion of combined heat and power. They have used excuses not to develop a truly sustainable energy policy and to establish more ambitious targets.

Achieving sustainability will involve far-reaching adjustments in the way we run our community and our economy. We and the rest of the industrial world—the Annex 1 countries—must now commit ourselves to a menu of undertakings under familiar and well-established headings. Those must include energy planning and efficiency in all sectors—including the expansion of CHP for fossil fuel burning—a major commitment to renewables which includes research and development in pioneering techniques like photovoltaics, and the transfer of technologies to third-world countries which would otherwise go in for a large consumption of fossil fuels and an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. We must enable those countries to achieve development without undergoing environmental degradation.

We need taxation and investment policies which encourage the conservation of energy while encouraging employment and emphasising social equity. We must employ the carrot, as well as the stick. We also need a continuing educational drive and public information initiative to influence consumer choice and life style. Those areas are crucial for our economic policy and for our environmental and social welfare generally, and not climate change alone. In fact, those matters would be relevant and valid even if we disproved the climate change theory. However, climate change is now the urgent issue and the catalyst for action.

It is essential that, following the Berlin conference, the Secretary of State makes an oral statement to the House or opens a full debate, as climate change is an issue of sufficient gravity to merit at least that parliamentary time. I look forward to getting the Ministers assurance on that matter.

1.45 pm
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Environment (Sir Paul Beresford)

Todays debate gives us an opportunity to come down to earth between the cataclysmic alarmists and the it will never happen to me brigade. I am certainly not getting my horse and cart out yet.

If we could come down to some practicalities, today is a good opportunity to debate the matter, particularly since this week sees the opening of the first meeting of the conference of parties to the climate change convention in Berlin.

The conference will be attended by Ministers from more than 120 countries, and that emphasises how seriously it is being taken. They will be considering the adequacy of existing commitments under the convention and the case for setting in hand arrangements to negotiate a protocol on further-reaching measures beyond the year 2000.

At the conference, the Secretary of State will be calling on all developed countries to agree to a tougher new long-term target to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by a figure between 5 and 10 per cent. below the 1990 levels by 2010. The UK has always been at the forefront of the international work under the convention. We are now leading the way in calling for a realistic and achievable reduction target for the year 2010.

Three main issues were raised by the hon. Member for Ceredigion and Pembroke, North (Mr. Dafis). First, he mentioned the questioning of the science of climate change, and the seriousness of the threat. There are variations in attitude from those who say it will never happen to me through to those who would take us back to the horse and cart, and would have us living in tents. Secondly, he talked about the international response under the climate change convention and the leading international role that is being played by the UK. Thirdly, he raised the UKs contribution to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, and the possible options for further reductions.

The climate change convention was signed by the Prime Minister at the 1992 Rio Earth summit. The convention recognises the need for a co-ordinated global response to tackle the threat of dangerous human interference with the climate system of our planet.

What was the scientific basis for international action? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change carried out a major assessment of climate change in 1990, with supplementary reports published in 1992 and 1994. The main scientific findings were that emissions from human activities were increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases, and that global average temperatures were predicted to rise by between 0.2 deg C and 0.3 deg C per decade—not 3 deg C as the hon. Gentleman stated.

Mr. Dafis

I said that the prediction was that temperatures would rise by 3 deg C by the end of the next century, which is equivalent to 0.3 deg C per decade.

Sir Paul Beresford

I stand corrected.

Associated with the shift in temperature, there may be an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events, sea level rises and droughts in some areas, and yesterdays weather did not help. Uncertainties may remain, including the pattern of regional variations. So we do not have a full answer yet, and we are still looking for one.

The climate modelling work being carried out at the Hadley centre is now so developed that the models are able to account with some accuracy for climate variability over the past 100 years. This increases our confidence in the ability of the models to predict future climate change as our ability to use them increases.

We continue to be committed to guiding policy by sound science, which is the only practical and sensible way to proceed. The UKs national research effort places it at the forefront of climate change research. We currently spend about £100 million on data acquisition and archiving, which includes earth observation from satellites. We shall continue to provide a strong input to the international scientific work through the IPCC, with the UK chairing and providing technical and administrative support for the working group on climatological processes. UK scientists are also well represented in the EU research programme on climate change, currently amounting to some £20 million but increasing threefold in the next programme starting in 1995. I should have thought that the size of those sums shows the importance which this country attaches to the issue.

There are still some uncertainties about the timing, magnitude and pattern of climate change, but in view of the scale of the potential threat, it must be right to take precautionary action, particularly where low-cost action now may prevent the need for more expensive and more dramatic action later.

Mr. Jon Owen Jones

The Minister mentioned the uncertainties ahead. Did he see The Money Programme at the weekend, in which insurance companies expressed concern because their job is to predict future events and the degree to which they will be called on to pay out sums? As this country makes a more-than-average contribution to the world insurance market, is it not particularly important to Britain's insurance market that we take effective action as soon as possible to combat global warming?

Sir Paul Beresford

I did not see the programme, although I am aware of the problem. Incidentally, the reason why I did not see the programme was because of other events rather than the fact that it was on the BBC. Hon. Members will agree that any action must be based on sound science. Action being taken now is moving towards changes and improvements, and it is being undertaken using sensible and economic means. It would be wrong to take draconian measures without understanding and knowing, on the sound base of science, which way we are going.

The first meeting of the conference of parties to the climate change convention is currently taking place in Berlin. This is reviewing the adequacy of existing commitments under the convention, and we hope that it will set in hand negotiations on possible future commitments.

The Government are convinced that developed countries have a lead responsibility in demonstrating what can be done, which is why the Secretary of State has already announced that he will call for all developed countries to agree to a figure for the reduction of total greenhouse gas emissions in the range between 5 and 10 per cent. below 1990 levels by 2010. We believe that such a target would be a credible and achievable next step for those countries to take within the framework of the convention. It will encourage continued international commitment, including from the developing countries. It also marks a significant move to a longer-term target, signalling the need for further reductions, and it reflects the importance of looking at the total effects of all greenhouse gas emissions taken together.

Some people have argued that we should go further. The Association of Small Island States has tabled a proposal for a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 20 per cent. below 1990 levels by 2005. Having recently come from the south Pacific, I understand the fears and concerns, because a small shift in ocean level would have a dramatic effect on some of those islands. Nevertheless, we must take account of what can realistically be achieved at this stage, and of the scale of costs that can be justified as appropriate under a precautionary approach. We must also remember that we need to make further progress in the science.

It makes neither environmental nor economic sense for countries to set targets unilaterally. The UK is responsible for only some 3 per cent. of global greenhouse gas emissions. It is essential, therefore, that we maintain international commitment under the convention to ensure the development of an effective global response to the threat, which means that we must focus on proposals that are realistic and achievable under the convention, within the European Union and in our UK programme of measures.

In January 1994, we became the first country to present a national programme under the convention and the first in the world to publish a detailed programme demonstrating how we would fulfil our commitment of aiming to return emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by 2000. The centrepiece of our programme is the set of measures to limit emissions of carbon dioxide—the main greenhouse gas. That was drawn up following extensive consultation, and it contains a balanced package of fiscal, educational and regulatory measures covering all sectors of the economy. It provides the framework that encourages the development of voluntary partnerships with Government, and we believe that it is important for everyone to play their part. It also encourages individuals and organisations to exploit the considerable scope for taking action that is cost-effective in its own right—so-called no regrets measures, which bring with them economic, social and other environmental benefits as well as reducing emissions.

To ensure that we met our commitment, the measures were designed to achieve savings equivalent to 10 million tonnes of carbon against projected emissions in 2000. The latest energy projections, published by the Department of Trade and Industry on 8 March this year, show that not only can we be confident of meeting our commitment, but that we now expect to exceed it, with emissions of carbon dioxide some 6 to 13 million tonnes of carbon below 1990 levels by 2000.

That considerable achievement reflects both the impact of the measures in our programme and our successful policy of privatisation and continuing deregulation of the electricity and gas industries. There has been a significant reduction in the carbon intensity of fuels used for electricity generation, through the increased investment in combined cycle gas turbines, the development of combined heat and power schemes, and the improved performance of nuclear generation. Interestingly, the community, local authorities and housing associations can play an important role in combined heat and power schemes. I was intrigued recently to open just such a scheme, in which engines originally designed for warfare tanks were turned into combined heat and power generators. The savings were considerable and the improvements in heat and power on the estates were dramatic.

Since its launch, our programme has, of course, evolved and some circumstances have changed. To give just a few examples, recent developments include the fact that road fuel duties rose last year by 8.6 per cent. in real terms—substantially more than our annual 5 per cent. commitment. Given the area from which he originates, the hon. Member for Ceredigion and Pembroke, North will realise that that presents some difficulties for people who live in rural areas, and we must reflect on that.

Another development is that new campaigns run by my Departments energy efficiency office include the making of a corporate commitment campaign, which has over 1,800 signatories and is succeeding in changing board-level attitudes to energy efficiency. That campaign is aimed at persuading firms, in particular, to recognise the financial and economic efforts of taking an energy-efficient approach in addition to the benefits of cutting greenhouse gases. Furthermore, new building regulations are about to come into effect which should improve energy efficiency standards in new homes and buildings by an estimated 25 to 30 per cent. We aim to stimulate the development of new and renewable energy technologies.

The third renewables non-fossil fuel obligation order was announced last December. That is expected to double the capacity of electricity from renewable sources already operational under the first two rounds. It keeps the Government on course as we work towards 1,500 MW of new and renewable generating capacity in the UK by the year 2000.

Looking ahead beyond the year 2000, we shall implement further policies and measures to deliver any long-term savings agreed under the convention. In doing so, we shall take account of the costs of the various options, including the social and environmental values, which cannot readily be quantified.

The prompt and successful implementation of our existing commitments, and the continuing beneficial effects of the measures that we have already taken, will put the UK in an excellent position to meet the challenge that the Secretary of State will put to developed countries in Berlin.

As I said at the beginning, there is a balance.