New Commonwealth Ethnic Population

HC Deb 04 May 1978 vol 949 cc439-40

11. Mr. Powell

asked the Secretary of State for the Home Department on what estimates of the proportion of the New Commonwealth ethnic population to the whole in Inner London and in England at the end of the century he based his replies to hon. Members on 6th April 1978.

Mr. Merlyn Rees

I had principally in mind the estimate that the proportion of our population of New Commonwealth and Pakistani ethnic origin was less than 3½ per cent. in 1976. I also took into account projections of figures for later this century.

Mr. Powell

If the Home Secretary cannot be more precise than that, how can he assure the House that the problem at the end of the century will be "very small", to use his own words? Is he aware that the evidence of the registration of births bears out the view expressed many years ago by one of his predecessors in office that this population would represent up to one-third or more of the population of some of the principal cities in England?

Mr. Rees

The point about the concentration in certain areas does not arise out of projections concerning the size of the population at the end of the century, except in so far as the right hon. Gentleman has raised it in his Question. That is unrelated to the size of the population at the end of the century. Estimates of the size of population have been made, but they are only intelligent guesses. As the right hon. Gentleman knows, the fertility rate of those who come here changes in accord with the social patterns of this country. When they come here, they tend to be young and, therefore, the birth rate tends to be high. This is true of any estimate that is made, on the evidence of Professor Brass or even on the evidence of Franks. Since Franks, I notice that the position has been corrected.

The right hon. Gentleman asks how I can know that the problem at the end of the century will be relatively small. I put a similar question to him. How can he know that it will be relatively large at the end of the century? The discussion must be between us. I believe that it will be relatively small on the evidence that we now have.