HC Deb 27 February 1975 vol 887 cc678-9
3. Dr. Jeremy Bray

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will place a copy of the manual on the Treasury Macroeconomic Model in the Library.

The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Joel Barnett)

A copy of the manual on the Treasury Macroeconomic Model was placed in the Library on 6th December 1974.

Dr. Bray

I am grateful to my hon. Friend, but is he aware that Conservative Members left forecasting in the Treasury in a bit of a mess? Will he ask the Civil Service Department to look into the organisation of forecasting in the Treasury and ensure that the Treasury uses the best programmes and methods available in this country and the United States? Further, will he ensure that he is not diverted by the current theories of Lord Kaldor and Mr. Godley from serious work on the development of the model?

Mr. Barnett

I hope that my hon. Friend will not object if I do not comment on the many theories that we have available to us, but the organisation and methods of Treasury forecasting are already being looked at, and the Civil Service Department is wholly involved in this inquiry. Up-to-date methods are used, incorporating refinements of procedure which have been developed both here and abroad. Where there is room for improvement we remain keen to consider such moves. A vast amount of technical expertise is now at our disposal. With all these resources available there would be no question of abandoning serious analytical and modelling work.