Balance of Payments (Hansard, 27 March 1969)

§ 19. Mr. Peyton
asked the Secretary of State for Economic Affairs when he expects the aim of a £500 million surplus on the balance of payments to be achieved.

30. Mr. Edward M. Taylor
asked the Secretary of State for Economic Affairs to what extent the policy outlined in the new economic planning document is based on a change from balance of payments deficit to a surplus of £500 million; and when this will be achieved.

§ 32. Mr. Hordern
asked the Secretary of State for Economic Affairs when the aim of economic policy, namely, the conversion of the balance of payments deficit into an annual surplus of £500 million, will be obtained.

§ Mr. Shore
The first priority of economic policy is to convert the balance of payments deficit into a substantial surplus of the order of £500 million as soon as possible. The speed at which it will be achieved will depend not only on the Government's action but on many other factors, including the joint efforts of both sides of industry in switching the necessary resources into the balance of payments.

§ Mr. Peyton
Does the right hon. Gentleman realise that he did not even begin to answer the Question? However, his reply is welcome to the extent that it may indicate that the Government are at last learning some modesty about their ability to forecast events. Does the Minister realise that public reaction to his Department and to the Government generally is a mixture of disdain and disregard as 1780 each forecast is falsified and each promise is broken?

§ Mr. Shore
It would be a mistake to attempt to give a precise date for this particular surplus, because there are so many factors involving the whole nation, and in particular both sides of industry, in the achievement of the substantial surplus that we need.

Mr. Taylor
If one of the factors which will bring it about is the efforts made by management and labour, why are the Government showing such appalling delays and complacency in bringing forward the legislation on labour relations which they said was urgent and important?

§ Mr. Shore
It is extraordinary to hear from the other side of the House complaints about, as they allege, delay on our part to do things which the did nothing about in all those years that they were in power.

§ Mr. Hordern
What is the point of producing a complicated economic planning document of this kind when the Government do not even know when they will achieve their first objective of producing a surplus of £500 million? When will they wake up from the dream world in which they live?

§ Mr. Shore
The purpose of the economic assessment is to give industry as reasonably good an assessment of the next five years as we possibly can. I assure the hon. Gentleman that industry would be highly sceptical of any Government attempting to forecast precisely the particular order of magnitude of a surplus in any year.

§ Mr. Barnett
Would it not be better to say that we shall not achieve a £500 million surplus, that we do not need to achieve it—nor do we need to achieve the figure of £700 million which the Opposition have quoted as their target—but that we prefer to go for a more realistic target of £200 million which is within our sights and which would give us the opportunity of a much higher rate of growth than would otherwise be possible?

§ Mr. Shore
I cannot accept my hon. Friend's judgment that this is not a necessary surplus for us to obtain. Nor do I accept his pessimism that the attainment 1781 of such a surplus is beyond the capacity of this nation.

§ Mr. Peyton
On a point of order. In view of the unsatisfactory nature of that reply, I beg to give notice that I shall seek to raise the matter on the Adjournment at the earliest possible moment.