§ 47. Mr. Mossasked the Prime Minister whether he will reconsider his decision not to terminate tests of nuclear devices in view of the fact that it has now been established that deposition of strontium 90 will exceed the level at which immediate consideration is required if tests continue, particularly in countries dependent upon a plant-type diet.
§ The Prime MinisterThe policy of Her Majesty's Government is to try to negotiate a workable agreement for the stopping of all nuclear tests of all kinds under effective control. I still hope that such an agreement may be reached.
§ Mr. MossHas the Prime Minister considered what will happen to the level of strontium 90 in bone if tests continue, either under assumption A or assumption B of the Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee, when perhaps under assumption A or B the level will be in excess of 10 units, and in certain circumstances in excess of 100 and even 200 units in certain parts of the world?
§ The Prime MinisterYes, Sir. That is why we are so anxious to reach agreement on the stopping of all nuclear tests. The recent interchange of opinions between President Eisenhower, myself and Mr. Khrushchev has marked an encouraging approach to a common point of view. All parties to the Geneva negotiations now seem ready to consider further the idea of a limited quota of inspections, an idea which I put forward some time ago. Meanwhile, I would remind the House that to the best of my knowledge there have been no nuclear tests since the autumn of last year.
§ Mr. BevanTherefore, if some agreement cannot be reached at Geneva about these tests, it would seem to be wise to keep the conference in permanent session, and then we would not have any more explosions.
§ The Prime MinisterI still think that most people would regard complete agreement as the most satisfactory, if we can get it. If we cannot get it, we shall have to consider the situation, but I still think, and recent developments encourage me to believe, that some compromise along 1043 the lines I proposed which Mr. Khrushchev accepted, and which President Eisenhower is now prepared to consider, may be worked out during the next few months.
§ 48. Mr. Beswickasked the Prime Minister if he will state the number of casualties which have been, or are likely to be, caused by the level of fall-out as now estimated.
§ The Prime MinisterIf by casualties the hon. Gentleman means direct injuries there is no evidence of any casualties that have yet occurred from the present worldwide levels of general fall-out.
For further information I would refer the hon. Gentleman to the Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation.
§ Mr. BeswickBut may I refer the Prime Minister to the more recent reports issued by the United States Department of Defence, in which it was said that there was no need for concern about this matter because the number of immediate casualties would be only one in half a million—in other words, 5,000 people immediately affected. Does the Prime Minister accept that figure or not?
§ The Prime MinisterWell, Sir, if one reads the report it is clear that there is a possibility of affection, but that figure was given as something like 2,500 to 100,000 major cases in all compared with 700,000 to 3 million cases which are likely to occur every year from natural causes. All these are good reasons to pursue as strongly as we can a policy which will bring these tests to an end.
§ Mr. BevanBut do not these figures finally dispose of the fiction of there being a threshold? If the number of casualties rises with the rising radiation, the conception of a threshold was unforgivably naïve from the very beginning.
§ The Prime MinisterI could not accept that, but if the right hon. Gentleman would put down a further question on that point, I will give the most precise Answer my advisers can devise.
§ 55. Mr. Beswickasked the Prime Minister to what extent, under the exchange agreement with the United States Atomic Energy Commission, he had been informed before 28th April of the recent estimates made by the Commission of the 1044 incidence of bone cancer and leukaemia, details of which have been sent to him by the hon. Member for Uxbridge.
§ The Prime MinisterWe interchange such data with the United States when they are available. These estimates, however, appear to have been extremely tentative and were qualified by the spokesman himself with the reservation—as in the Report of the United Nations Scientific Committee—that
there may of course be no additional cases at all
§ Mr. BeswickWhile the Prime Minister may well say that some of us on this side of the House exaggerate these dangers, is it not a fact that he consistently plays them down? Would he not agree that the representative of the United States Atomic Energy Commission to the Joint Sub-Committee of the United States Congress also said that there would be fifty to a hundred additional cases of bone cancer arising from fall-out produced by present tests in each of the next seventy years? Is that what the Prime Minister has in mind when he says that there is no cause for immediate concern?
§ The Prime MinisterNo, Sir. I do not think that what the hon. Member has said is a fair statement of what I have tried to do in the House, and I do not think that the House as a whole shares his view. I have been asked a very large number of Questions, which I have done my best to answer and for which I have made quite long preparations in order to try to give accurate information to the House. I try to answer such supplementary questions as I feel that I can answer without the danger of misleading hon. Members on very important subjects. I try to put it in its true perspective. That does not mean that I am not as anxious as anybody else in the world to try to bring to an end a system of atmospheric tests which, whether their danger be as great as some think or as little as others think, had much better not take place if we can find—as we are searching for—an international agreement to prevent them.
§ Dr. SummerskillIf, under the exchange agreement with the United States Atomic Energy Commission, we were informed that we were near the danger level, what instructions would be given to the public with a view to giving them the maximum protection?
§ The Prime MinisterThat is a hypothetical question and in such an advanced form that it would require quite a good command of grammar to answer it.