§ 22. Mr. Swinglerasked the Minister of Labour if he is aware of the short comings of the present system of counting the unemployed in Great Britain, which tends to underestimate the numbers involved; and if he will carry out a more accurate count, having particular regard to the advantages of the system of sample surveys used in the United States of America.
§ Mr. Iain MacleodI regard the present system of counting the number of persons registered as seeking work on a particular day as the best practicable method of measuring unemployment in this country.
The monthly sample survey used in the United States is costly, is subject to appreciable sampling errors and would not provide the detailed industrial and local figures at present available. I have given the matter careful consideration but I am not prepared to introduce a sample survey system.
§ Mr. SwinglerHas the Minister of Labour studied the criticisms of the present system which have been made by well qualified economists and statisticians and which tend to show that the count of unemployed in this country depends on such hazards as the days of the count 1099 and the number thrown out of employment who happen to register at the exchanges? Will he admit that the system tends to produce an under-estimate of the actual figure of unemployment, which is more serious than that shown by his present figures? Should not something be done by his Department to try to get a more accurate estimate?
§ Mr. MacleodI think that I have read all the articles and correspondence mentioned. The difficulty with the American system is that it takes a sample which relates to only 42,000 houses and is therefore representative of less than 1 in 1,000 of the total population. There is an enormous statistical error latent in that. Its great attraction from my point of view is that it would not be possible for me to answer constituency Questions on unemployment, because I would not have the statistics needed. On the general question, I tried to deal with this matter in my speech of 17th December, and perhaps I may refer the hon. Member to HANSARD.
§ Mr. RobensIs the right hon. Gentleman aware that there is growing disquiet in the country about these figures? Is he aware that when one compares the number of people in civil employment and the number of unemployed in one period with any comparable period, it seems that many thousands of people cease to register and go out of employment— married women and others, for instance? Can he at any time give us a figure to indicate the fall in the number of jobs which have been filled and which are no longer available?
§ An analysis showing the age groups of persons on the unemployed registers is taken only at six-monthly intervals, the latest available figures being for 8th December, 1958. The table below gives the figures for that date.
| ANALYSIS SHOWING THE AGE-GROUPS OF PERSONS REGISTERED AS WHOLLY UNEMPLOYED IN GREAT BRITAIN AT 8TH DECEMBER, 1958 | ||||||||||
| Age group | ||||||||||
| — | Under 18 | 18 and 19 | 20–24 | 25–39 | 40–49 | 50–54 | 55–64 (males)55-59 (females) | 60–65 and over | Total | |
| Males | … | 12,723 | 14,967 | 40,091 | 101,014 | 57,893 | 33,427 | 70,401 | 6,107 | 336,623 |
| Females | … | 9,045 | 10,867 | 25,501 | 38,459 | 23,222 | 13,854 | 12,525 | 1,668 | 135,141 |
| Total | … | 21,768 | 25,834 | 65,592 | 139,473 | 81,115 | 47,281 | 82,928 | 7,775 | 471,764 |
§ Mr. MacleodNo. I know of no method by which that could be done. Of course, if that criticism is made of the 1958 or 1959 figures, it could be made of the figures of every year. This is not something which has just happened. In fact, there are not only hundreds of thousands more people in employment now than eight or nine years ago, but a considerably higher percentage both in the civil and total working population.
§ 53. Mr. Leaveyasked the Minister of Labour what analysis he has made of current unemployment figures so as to ascertain the age groups predominantly represented among those who are without work.
§ Mr. Iain MacleodAs the reply includes a table of figures, I will, if I may, circulate a statement in the OFFICIAL REPORT.
§ Mr. LeaveyI look forward to reading that reply. Does not my right hon. Friend agree that while there is naturally some concern about the position of young people who are finding some difficulty in obtaining employment, a problem also arises in respect of older people who are out of work? Would it be possible to introduce some statistical survey, which might help to anticipate the needs of the elderly who are out of work, rather than to take action after they are registered?
§ Mr. MacleodOffhand, I cannot think of a way in which to do that, but if my hon. Friend has any ideas perhaps he will talk to me about the matter.
§ Following is the reply: