§ Now I come to below the line, and in this field I shall have some changes to propose. First, let me forecast expenditure on the existing basis. This, at £678 million, is £98 million less than the estimate for 1955–56, and the receipts of £225 million are £33 million higher than the forecast made a year ago.
§ The main difference in the expenditure side comes from an estimated decline of £100 million in loans to local authorities. Repayments from local authorities are estimated to rise by £10 million, yielding a net improvement of no less than £110 million. This, of course, is mainly due to the expectation that this year they will raise more of their necessary finance in the stock and mortgage markets. Loans to the National Coal Board are expected to be £25 million less, and I estimate that £27 million less will be required to meet outstanding claims for compensation under the Town and Country Planning Acts. Loans to the Potato Marketing Board, at £5 million, and to the Sugar Board, of £10 million, are new items of expenditure which have arisen since last year. On the other side of the account, the proceeds from the liquidation of the Raw Cotton Commission, which produced £15 million in 1955–56, have now practically come to an end. On balance, the forecast for below the line items shows a deficit of £453 million, or £131 million less than the estimate made last year for 1955–56.
§ To sum up: estimated surplus above the line, with present taxation, £445 million: estimated deficit on services at present financed below the line, £453 864 million. Not quite Mr. Micawber's ideal—but uncommonly near it! Unfortunately for the appearance of the thing—it makes no difference to the reality—I have certain changes to propose which will, apparently, though only apparently, rather spoil this pretty picture. It would be nice, of course, to show and proclaim an overall balance in 1956–57. It would sound well at home and abroad. It would be good advertising. But, as hon. Members know, this particular form of calculation depends on what items you choose to include in or exclude from the Budget arithmetic below the line. What matters, of course—the only thing that matters—is whether the total amount of saving by the whole nation, whether compulsory or voluntary, is sufficient to meet the needs of investment, and what Budget surplus is required to make that cerain.