§ Above the line, therefore, on the basis of existing taxation and measures already announced, the prospects are for a surplus of £445 million. This compares with an estimated surplus for last year of £148 million and a realised surplus of £397 million. I repeat—it is an important figure—on the basis of existing taxation we expect a surplus of £445 million above the line.
§ During the year there will, of course, be overspendings and underspendings, as in previous years. Some items are already known to us. I hope that the Civil Service staff associations will accept the offer to carry out with certain modifications the proposals of the Royal Commission on the Civil Service. Certain pay increases have been made meanwhile. The cost, none of which is covered by 863 the estimates, will be £12 million, apart from the Post Office.
§ Another known item on the other side of the picture is the removal of the remainder of the bread subsidy. The Government have decided that this should take effect at the end of September. It will produce a saving of about £12 million this year and about £23½ million in a full year. It is not necessary to repeat the arguments for this step, which was fully debated on 20th February. There are other items which are uncertain. There is, for example, the prospect of an increase in teachers' pay. I must bear all this in mind. So much for above the line.