§ The accounts then show another big surplus in prospect. The question which the Committee will want answered is, should I increase it, should I reduce it, or should I leave it broadly as it is? The answer depends, as the Committee knows, on a proper assessment of what taxation has got to do. Its job is not merely to balance the Government's expenditure. It has a part to play in so regulating the purchasing power available to the community as a whole that this purchasing power does not outrun the amount of goods and services available.
§ My previous conclusion was that in order to achieve our objectives, no more than the same amount of resources as last year can be spared for the ordinary civil consumer at home. The question now is whether I need take action by way of taxation to prevent consumers seeking 1288 to buy in the coming year more than they have done this year.
§ I propose to give the Committee only the bare outline of the considerations which I have taken into account. As everyone knows, consumer goods already cost a good deal more than they did a year ago. This means about another £400 million more on the bill for the same amount of goods and services. Incomes, of course, have risen too, but I judge that if I leave the Budget surplus broadly where it is, the money people will have to spend in the coming year will, for reasons I have already given, only be just about enough to pay for the goods that are likely to be available if exports expand as we hope.
§ I have not allowed for any great increase in personal saving in the coming year. But I should like to stress the importance of National Savings. The fine work done by all members of the National Savings Movement is recognised by all Members of the Committee. I believe in savings, and I think the Committee believe in savings. I believe that what I am doing will give the Movement a great new opportunity, of which I hope it and its distinguished Chairman and members will take advantage.