§ Against this, I estimate that at current tax rates the total revenue will be £4,778 million, an increase of £338 million over the estimated out-turn of the current year. The increase is more than accounted for by Inland Revenue duties which, at £2,800 million, will yield about £430 million more than this year's expected out-turn. The yield of the Income Tax next year I put at £1,980 million, an increase of nearly £300 million. This is due in part to the big increase in company profits which occurred in 1951 and will come under charge to Income Tax in 1952, and in part to the higher level of the wage and salary bill. The suspension of the 1287 initial allowances, which operates from 6th April next, will not affect the tax payable in the coming year. The Profits Tax will also show a big increase in yield in 1952–53, resulting partly from the increase in company profits and partly from the increase to 50 per cent, in the distributed rate of Profits Tax made in the last Budget. I put the yield at £460 million, an increase of about £150 million.
§ The revenue from the Customs and Excise duties, on the other hand, I put at £1,750 million, about the same figure as for the present year. The principal items in the total for 1952–53 are: tobacco, no less than £605 million; beer and other alcoholic drinks, £394 million; Purchase Tax, £340 million; oil, £205 million; Import Duties Act, £80 million; Entertainments Duty, £47 million; and betting, £26 million. Since practically no revenue is expected next year from surplus stores, and considerably less from surplus receipts of trading services, the net increase in total revenue is reduced to' about £338 million.
§ Taking revenue and expenditure together, this means that I expect an "above the line" surplus, on the conventional basis of accounting, of no less than £538 million. On the alternative classification the surplus is £687 million, compared with £603 million on the provisional out-turn of the current year.