HC Deb 24 June 1948 vol 452 cc1556-7
48. Mr. Osborne

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer the detailed data upon which it was calculated on page 7, Section 12, of the Economic Survey, Command Paper No. 7344, that, owing to the greater increase of import than export prices since 1938, our 1947 imports cost £250,000,000 extra; and what have been the relative changes to the nearest convenient date since that calculation was made.

The Economic Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Douglas Jay)

Indices of average values were applied to the c.i.f. value of 1947 imports so as to obtain an estimate of what these imports would have cost if import prices had risen since 1938 to only the same extent as export prices. The figure so obtained was subtracted from the recorded value of imports in 1947. In April of this year the terms of trade were about 5 per cent. less favourable than in 1947. If, in 1947, import and export prices had been at the April, 1948, level, a further £90 million would have been added to the £250 million quoted in the Economic Survey.

Mr. Osborne

May we have the data upon which these calculations were based, and do I understand the answer to mean that the position is now about 5 per cent. worse than was set out when the Survey was published?

Mr. Jay

The answer to the second part of the question is, "Yes." In reply to the first part of the hon. Member's question, I will certainly supply the data to him.

Mr. Nicholson

When the Minister says that the position is 5 per cent. worse, does he mean 5 per cent. of the deficit, or 5 per cent. of what?

Mr. Jay

It means that the extent to which the ratio of export-import prices have deteriorated since 1938 has gone 5 per cent. further.