§ The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Mr. Dalton)In April last, I estimated the revenue for this financial year at £3,451 million and the expenditure at £3,181 million, with a surplus for the year of £270 million. During the passage of the Finance Bill, I gave further tax reliefs and concessions which reduced this surplus to £258 million. In the first 32 weeks of this financial year, up to the end of last week, the revenue has been £2,013 million and expenditure £1,760 million, giving a surplus, up to date, of £253 million—in other words, within £5 million of what I estimated for the full year. It is a very long while in our financial annals, since a surplus of this size could be shown before the last, and, as the Committee know, most productive quarter of the financial year. It is in the last quarter of the financial year that Income Tax and other revenue flows in most copiously. Indeed, having undertaken a little research into this matter, I find there is no precedent for so large a surplus at this time of the year.
392 It is, of course, too early yet to say much about the final results for the year as a whole; but I am prepared to say that the prospects are reasonably promising. Broadly speaking, tax revenue is coming in well up to our expectations, and non-tax revenue is coming in a good deal better than we estimated. For instance, sales of surplus war stores have realised £126 million up to date, and have, therefore, exceeded already by £31 million, the estimate for the whole 12 months.
On the expenditure side, Supplementary Estimates have already been presented for £9.7 million, the largest item being £5 million for the Ministry of Agriculture, to help to make good, as the Committee unanimously decided was desirable, the agricultural disasters earlier in the year. The Ministry of Food, not for the first time, are having to pay higher prices than we estimated. World shortages and an almost world-wide inflation are the cause of this. On balance, I expect that the Civil Votes as a whole will show some excess over the Estimates for the year, but, as against this, I estimate that there will be some saving this year on Defence and Supply.