§ I will deal first with expenditure, and then with revenue. As to expenditure, it is, of course, too soon—much too soon—to attempt any close forecast of expenditure in the next financial year, which does not begin until the end of March. The time for that lies some months hence. This is the season when the estimates of the various Departments are being prepared for submission to and discussion with the Treasury. That process is going on now. Some of the Departmental Estimates are being received; others have not yet been put forward in detail. But some things can be said now, with reasonable assurance, regarding the next financial year. The reduction of the Armed Forces, which has lately been announced, and the speeding up of the releases should certainly mean a substantial economy in Defence expenditure next year.
§ Further, I am glad to be able to tell the Committee that, although the new measures of social security for which we have been preparing during the year—many of which will come into operation in July next—have required new staff, some of them by transfer from other organisations, yet, in spite of this, the total number of civil servants on 1st October last was 32,000 fewer than on 1st January. Also, we may expect a big run-off, in terms of expenditure, on miscellaneous civil items, totalling £320 million, which were shown in last April's Financial Statement under the heading of "Terminal or Temporary Services arising out of the War." On the other hand, we must remember that there are large terminal or non-recurrent items of revenue as well as of expenditure.
§ Moreover, as my right hon. Friend the Minister for Economic Affairs has announced, there will be a cut of the order of £200 million a year in the total capital investment programme of the country. All, of this cut, by switching resources from capital construction, especially on long-term programmes, to the production of 395 goods for immediate use, whether at home or for export, will help us either to speed up the export drive or to ease the inflationary pressure by maintaining supplies in the home market. All of it will be serviceable as a counter-inflationary movement; but only a part of it, of course, will actually be reflected in reduced budgetary expenditure by the Government or by local authorities.