§ On the expenditure side, the main uncertainty lies with the Vote of Credit figure. I have received from the spending Departments estimates which suggest that the total issues out of the Vote of Credit during the year will come to a sum of about £4,500,000,000. There is a probable saving of some £200,000,000 on the Defence and Supply Departments; but this is outweighed by the cost of supplies which were formerly provided under Lend-Lease and which now have to be paid for, and also by credits for the financing of Anglo-French trade, which 1884 we must all desire to get moving again, under the Financial Agreement signed last March. These estimates must, of course, be very tentative, because we are only half way through the financial year, and much may change in the next few months. As regards the expenditure of the Service and Supply Departments, we must remember that the faster we demobilise, as is desired on the other side of the House not less than on this—this is an arithmetical point—the more we shall have to pay within this financial year by way of lump sum gratuities and Service credits. I am only making the simple point that the total expenditure chargeable to the Service and Supply Departments will to this extent be temporarily inflated, and quite rightly. But this has a bearing upon the out-turn of the expenditure of this financial year. It is a mere point of accountancy—meaningless symbols, almost; but none the less it is the duty of the Chancellor of the Exchequer to draw attention to them.
§ There is also a question of interest to war contractors, some of whom may be listening to me now. The closing down of war contracts, due to the sudden outbreak of peace, involves compensation payments to these contractors. These terminal payments also, like the lump sum gratuities to the fighting men, will be large in relation to the current costs saved over the rest of this financial year by reason of reductions in uniformed personnel and the cancellation of contracts. With the co-operation of my colleagues in charge of the Service and Supply Departments, I am doing all I can to hurry down their expenditure as speedily as is possible. But when we judge the total charges made in respect of those Departments, the considerations that I have just mentioned have their place as regards this year.
§ Turning to the Civil Supply Services, supplementary votes already granted or to be asked for, will probably mean an excess on the Budget estimates of some £20,000,000 under a variety of heads. In short, to sum the whole thing up, it looks as though the final deficit for 1945–46 will not be very far off the original estimate of my predecessor, balancing the various considerations that I have mentioned one against the other.
§ Looking forward to the next financial year, the Committee will not expect me, six months before the normal time, to 1885 say much about the prospects. A great deal will depend in 1946–47 upon the size of the Defence expenditure, and this in turn will depend upon decisions of policy which will have to be taken over the next 18 months. They 'have not yet been taken and cannot be taken yet; but, as I have already announced to the Committee in the discussion on the Vote of Credit, after March next the Defence expenditure will be borne once more upon the ordinary Estimates and no longer upon Votes of Credit. After six years' relaxation of Parliamentary and Treasury controls—as was inevitable in time of war, because it was more important to win the war than to save money—the healthy discipline of those controls will be reimposed from the beginning of the next financial year; and I am sure that hon. Members in all parts of the House will co-operate in making these controls a reality.