§ Turning to civil expenditure, next year will be the first full year of peace and also the first full year of office of His Majesty's present Government; and, this being so, the Committee may take for granted that next year there will be increased expenditure, both to extend the Social Services, and to carry out a number of other constructive tasks. Family allowances will begin to be paid next year under the Act passed at the end of the period of the late Government, and increased old age pensions and other improved benefits will also begin to be paid under the legislation which my right hon. Friend the Minister of National Insurance is now preparing. There will also be increased expenditure on housing and on education, both of which have necessarily fallen into great arrears by reason of the war; and there will be expenditure, in another field, on Colonial Development and Welfare. To do all these things and to do them well, as part of a coherent plan, steadily accomplished stage by stage during the life time of this Parliament—such shall be our aim, our pledge, and our pride. We shall do these things.
§ Let no one expect—and no sensible person will expect—that we shall be able next year to present a fully balanced Budget. Next year we shall substantially narrow, although we shall not wholly close, the gap between expenditure and revenue. The Committee may recollect 1886 that after the last war the Budget was not balanced until the year 1920–21, and even then the surplus was more than accounted for by receipts from the sale of war stores. It was not a genuine surplus. The first genuine surplus did not come after the last war until two years later, 1922–23. If we follow that precedent we shall have our first real surplus in 1949–50. But, of course, we shall see. So far, however, as the general ideas governing this matter are concerned, I would submit to the Committee that, once we are through this transitional and exceptional period of the next few years, we should aim at balancing the Budget, not necessarily each year, but over a period of years, deliberately planning Budget surpluses when trade is firmly good and equally deliberately planning Budget deficits when trade is bad or when it is threatening to go bad; but balancing, over a period, surpluses against deficits.
§ From the point of view of the public accounts, an old teacher of mine used to say "there is no special sanctity in the period in which the earth revolves around the sun." In recent years thought on this subject has moved very far from its old orthodox bearings, as indeed was recognised by the late Government and their advisers in the famous White Paper on employment policy issued under the late Government, which, I have no doubt, all Members of the Committee, including the newly elected Members, have carefully read and deeply studied. If not, they should do so. It was a very interesting and well written document, as such documents go.