§ Now I come to the estimate of the Revenue for the year. The Estimate of the Revenue for the year, as the right hon. Gentleman opposite knows, depends very largely upon the trade outlook. If that outlook is dark you proceed to estimate accordingly, and you estimate for a diminishing dwindling Revenue on everything which is in the slightest degree affected by the movement of trade. Therefore, you have to form some opinion as to what is the trade prospect. I have made careful inquiries this year as I did last year. Last year I came to the conclusion that trade was likely to be good and that we were marching on towards a trade boom. That estimate turned out to be accurate. Encouraged by the success of that first prophecy, I am now going to venture upon another. After careful inquiries again, I have come to the conclusion, on very high authority, that the prospect, of a continuance of good trade is excellent, that trade can hold its own, and the indications of the trade barometer are "Set Fair," with a possible increase in trade prosperity. As hon. and right hon. Gentlemen know very well, the condition of trade depends very largely in this and other countries upon the harvest. The harvests gathered in already are on the whole excellent. The crops are exceptionally promising, except in Russia, and the present indications are "Outlook for crops unusually favourable."
§ In addition to that we have a spirit, of enterprise abroad. I referred to that point last year. In the United States alone there is some hesitancy observable for reasons that I cannot very well com- 1861 ment upon, but there has been so great an improvement in the last few months in the financial position there that it must prevail over timid or sulking interests. Even in the United States of America the prospects are better than they were. There is in addition to that a great output of gold, and the lending countries of the world are advancing freely to South America and other places for the purpose of developing their resources. That has in itself an enormous effect upon the trade of our country, because our trade is more international than the trade of any other country in the world. France has been advancing, Germany has been advancing, and we have been advancing money to South America and other countries for development, and all that will come back to us in trade and in a reduced cost of food, which makes for good trade. The price of food is going down, and therefore the people have more money to spend upon other commodities. That creates trade, and that is one of the most hopeful symptoms in the whole outlook. Railway traffic is improving, and the receipts of the railways are greater than they ever were before in the history of this country. All our great trades are active, employment is good, and in my estimate I am reckoning on a sunny year.