§ Now I come to the figures. The first figures I have to deal with are those relating to Customs and Excise, and in this respect the first difficulty always is in estimating the duty on spirits. They are most volatile in more senses than one, and during the last two or three years they have been exceptionally difficult to estimate. The first year, as the Committee knows very well, our estimate was falsified to a very considerable extent. We could not tell to what extent that was due to lessened consumption, and how much was due to the fact that the trade were exhausting their cellars because of the political unrest and because there was no certainty as to what might happen. Last year proved that. a good deal of the exceptional fall in 1909 was due to what I call "cellarage," and the fact that they were clearing out their cellars to the very lowest keg rather than take any more spirits out of bond until they were quite sure what was going to happen to the 14s. 9d. duty. Last year they replenished those stocks, but not altogether. This is very difficult to find out. We have very able officials, who have done their very best to find out exactly what has 1862 happened, and they have come to the conclusion that although the trade have replenished their stocks, the estimate which the hon. Member for Ayr Burghs (Mr. Younger) gave me across the floor of the House is on the whole accurate—namely, that they never fill up their stocks to what they used to be before that date, and therefore, although they have not really replenished their depleted stocks and put them in the position they were prior to 1909, I believe they have been restocking, and they have done as much restocking as they are likely to do. Those are the facts or rather the conjectures upon which I am going to base my Estimate, and therefore I am estimating that about £1,000,000 of this amount last year was due to restocking, that that process is at an end, and I am not going to get anything more out of that.
§ Mr. AUSTEN CHAMBERLAINWhat was the increase last year? Can the right hon. Gentleman give me the figures?
§ Mr. LLOYD GEORGEI am sorry I cannot give the figures, but I think the amount was £3,000,000. At any rate it was a very considerable amount, something like £3,000,000 or £4,000,000. I am allowing £1,000,000 for restocking, and that has gone. I am not going to get that this year, and I am allowing for what was indicated by the right hon. Gentleman opposite in his speech in the year 1904 or 1905. I think the right hon. Gentleman opposite was the first to comment on the fact that there seemed to be a sort of set steady tendency in the way of less drinking not only on the part of the middle classes but on the part of the working clases as well. He pointed out that for the first time trade did not bring an increased consumption of intoxicating liquors, and he came to the conclusion that this was due to a real change in the habits of the people. I think everything that has happened since has confirmed that forecast, and although this is a year of exceptional prosperity I am still going to make an allowance of 1½ per cent. for a decrease in drinking. That will bring my Estimate to £21,400,000 for this year for spirits, Customs and Excise together.