§ I have still nearly two millions more to find, and for this I must turn to tobacco—from a fiscal point of view, a much healthier source of revenue. The present rate of duty on unmanufactured tobacco containing 10 per cent. or more of moisture is 3s. a pound, and the increase I propose is 8d. a pound, with equivalent additions to the rates for cigars, cigarettes, and manufactured tobacco. Now, one pound of unmanufactured tobacco as imported, produces, after allowance has been made on the one hand for waste in manufacture, and on the other for the moisture which is added in preparing it for sale, nearly 1 1–5 pounds of the tobacco of retail trade, so that an addition of half an ounce to the retail price leaves the tobacco trade with an ample margin to finance the increased duty.
§ In estimating the additional yield from the increased rate of duty, regard must be had, as under the spirit duty, to the considerations that one month of the year has already passed, and that the duty-paid stocks are inflated by forestalments. Allowance must also be made—but in this 546 case a comparatively small allowance—for decrease of consumption consequent upon the higher rate of duty. My estimate, therefore, is £1,900,000 for 1909–10, and £2,250,000 for a full year.