§ I now come to what is a more interesting topic—namely, the estimated revenue. 460 Before I deal with the specific heads I may make one or two observations of a general character. The first is this. The revenue of 1907–1908 benefited at the expense of 1906–1907 owing to the holding back on a large scale of the clearances of dutiable articles, in view of anticipations—which were not realised—of possible Budget changes. The result was that we got into the revenue of last year a good deal more than we should have done under Customs if those anticipations had never come into existence. The Customs think the revenue of 1907–1908 gained £250,000 from this source, and there will be no equivalent gain in 1908–1909. Another point to be noticed is that last year was Leap year and very happily situated in regard to the there were two more days for the receipt of revenue in 1907–1908 than in 1908–1909, and the Customs Department estimate the extra days to be worth about £200,000 to them. Those two facts must be borne in mind by those who think perhaps that our Estimates are of too conservative a kind. The Customs have estimated as against the receipts in 1907–1908 amounting to £32,490,000, for receipt on the basis of existing taxation, of£32,600,000, or an addition of £110,000. That might have been a little larger if it had not been for the two facts to which I have called attention. Excise, as I pointed out, was a disappointing head of revenue. Population grows but the people, instead of drinking more, drink rather less. I am speaking in the character of an ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer. Excise is estimated for the ensuing year, as against £35,720,000, the receipts in 1907–8, at £35,500,000. We estimate for a falling off of £220,000. I am afraid we must contemplate something like that. Estate duties—the most gambling head undoubtedly in the whole series, but one of which past experience encourages a sanguine view—realised £19,070,000 in 1907–8. I am going to put them at £19,500,000, or an increase of £430,000. The Committee may ask why I do that. I take the receipts from estate duties of the last three years, which were £55,499,000. The year 1907–8, of course, included £610,000 derived from the enhanced scale of duty on the large 461 estates. Deduct that from the total of the three years and you arrive at £54,889,000, the total under the old scale of duties. That gives an averagee receipt in the three years of £18,300,000. Our duties we hope will yield £1,200,000. I do not say they will at once, but we hope they will, and if you add that to the other sum you get £19,500,000—which is the figure I ventured to estimate—or an increase of £430,000 over last year. Stamps I put up very slightly. I put them at £8,100,000, which is an increase of £130,000; land tax, £700,000, a decrease of £30,000; house duty, £1,900,000, a decrease of £60,000. Then I come to income-tax, and here the Committee may be surprised. But I am going to estimate—and I think I am justified in doing so—the receipts at £33,000,000, as against the actual receipts last year of £32,380,000, or an increase of £620,000. If I am asked why I do that my answer is this. The income-tax assessments for the current financial year will be based upon the average of the past three years. We bring a very good year into the average—namely, last year—in place of a rather bad year which was still affecting the average in the income-tax receipts for last year. The income-tax for this year will be on an average of three extremely good and indeed booming years, and under these circumstances, I think, we may reasonably assume that a larger amount of income will be brought under review, and we are justified in raising the estimate to the extent which I have suggested. That brings the total receipts from taxation to £131,300,000, or an increase on the receipts of last year of £980,000.
§ I come now to the non-tax items. The Postal Service I put at £18,250,000, as against £17,880,000, an increase of £370,000. In the next year we propose to separate the telegraph and telephone services, a change which has long been needed. The telegraph service I put at £3,000,000, the telephone service at £1,520,000, or a total of £4,520,000. The increase on the two together is £100,000. Crown lands I put at £530,000, an increase of £10,000; Suez Canal shares, £1,170,000, a decrease of £20,000; miscellaneous, which includes 462 that very uncertain item of the Mint, we go as far as to put at £2,000,000 which shows a diminution of £208,000 as compared with the very exceptional receipts of last year. That will bring the total non-tax revenue to £26,470,000, or an increase of £252,000. If tax and non-tax revenue are now added together, the total estimated revenue is £157,770,000, or an increase of £1,232,000. We will put the two figures together and subtract one figure from the other and you will get—estimated revenue, £157,770,000; estimated expenditure, £152,869,000; which brings out an estimated surplus of £4,901,000.
§ Before I go further I must mention a matter which, although comparatively small in its dimensions, is of great interest to the mercantile community—I mean the duty on marine policies of insurance. The present scale for voyage policies is at the rate of 3d. for every £100 insured; for time policies at the same rate of 3d. where the time is not longer than six months; and at the rate of 6d. where the time exceeds six months. As a general rule, under modern conditions time policies are taken out for ships and voyage policies for goods. The vast majority of voyages are quite short—perhaps only a few days—and it is not equitable that the same duty should be charged on a policy for goods covering a short voyage as on a policy for ships covering a period of six months. I propose, therefore, as from 1st January next, to reduce the duty on voyage policies from 3d. to 1d. per cent. (except in cases where it is already a fixed duty of 1d. as regards which no change is proposed). The total amount produced at present is not more than £250,000, and, although it is impossible to forecast the effect of the change, I estimate that it will result in a loss to the revenue with a full year of about £80,000, and, in the present year, when the change will operate for only one quarter, at about £20,000. It sounds a small sum, but I believe it will be a great convenience and a change which will be much appreciated by the mercantile community.
§ Another, and more far-reaching change which I propose to take power to make in the Finance Bill is to transfer the Excise Department from the Inland 463 Revenue to the Customs. From the point of view of administrative economy and efficiency I think—and my opinion is shared by almost all these distinguished Government officials who have had the closest experience of the inner working of both offices—a substantial gain will result to the public service from that change. It will have no effect upon the finances of the present year, but I wish to take power to effect the transfer by Order in Council if and when the time should arrive.