§ Mr. AmosTo ask the Secretary of State for Transport if he will list (i) his Department's prediction at planning stage of the average daily traffic flow in the opening year for trunk road bypass schemes completed in 1986–87 and 1987–88 and (ii) the observed average daily traffic flow in the opening for those schemes in 1986–87 and 1987–88.
§ Mr. Peter BottomleyTraffic is counted on all new trunk road schemes approximately one year after opening, to allow traffic patterns to settle down before the flow is measured. For bypass schemes opened in 1986–87, predicted and actual traffic in 1987–88 are given in the table.
Annual average daily traffic flow Forecast Scheme Low growth High growth count Traffic A52 Bingham bypass 9,400 10,000 10,500 A43 Bulwick bypass 5,000 5,300 5,700 A11 Barton Mills bypass 16,600 17,800 19,250 A12 Chelmsford bypass — 139,000 45,400 A31 Ferndown bypass 14,700 16,400 18,000 A54 Kelsall bypass 8,400 9,100 10,600 A57 Worksop bypass 10,300 12,800 9,800 A428 Bromham bypass 15,100 16,550 13,350 Al0 Ely/Littleport bypass 5,000 5,400 6,800 A49 Tarporley bypass 6,700 7,300 9,800 A47 Billesdon bypass 5,850 6,300 9,200 A56 Accrington bypass 21,300 25,900 13,100 1 Central forecast. Those bypass schemes opened in 1987–88 for which data are available are listed below: 363W
Forecast Scheme Low growth High growth count Traffic A43 Towcester bypass 12,650 14,250 14,150 A10 Buntingford bypass 8,900 10,050 10,150 A43 Brackley bypass 8,450 9,500 11,400 The forecasts for the schemes listed above were done several years ago, mostly between 1980 and 1984. The forecast range reflects uncertainty about future income and fuel prices, which are the main factors influencing the national traffic growth forecasts. Other uncertainties arise from traffic modelling and other developments which occur between the time of the forecast and the traffic count. Traffic counts are also subject to a degree of uncertainty.