§ Mr. Matthew Taylor (Truro and St. Austell)The Minister and I will at least agree on the fact that there will be a total eclipse of the sun in the late morning of 11 August 1999. In the United Kingdom, that will be seen across most of Cornwall and in parts of south-west Devon. It is the first place in the world that the effect will be seen, and will bring travellers from abroad. I am told that people follow eclipses wherever they occur around the globe. The rest of the UK will experience only a partial eclipse, so undoubtedly many people from other parts of the country will go to the south-west to see the total eclipse.
I admit that I do not know how many people will come to see the eclipse. The trouble is that no one knows, not even the Minister. However, we know that it is a once-in-a-lifetime experience. The last total eclipse in the United Kingdom was 71 years ago, and the next one will not be for 92 years. It is no surprise that vast numbers of people want to see it. The majority of the accommodation in Cornwall has a waiting list, and vacancies are immediately filled if people hear of the likely problems and cancel their booking. Private properties are being let on the internet for as much as £3,500 a week to people travelling from as far afield as Japan.
The last total eclipse visible from mainland United Kingdom was on 29 June 1927. I have a picture of it taken by my father's brother, because his family travelled to see it. At that time, 3 million people went to see the eclipse in the north of England, despite the fact that most of them did not have a car or other personal transport. It remains the biggest-ever recorded movement of people by train in one day. If even a third of that number come to Cornwall, we shall have a huge national event in an area that already suffers from bottlenecks.
Moreover, 11 August 1999 is a Wednesday, so local people will be travelling to work. It is mid-harvest, the middle of the tourist season and in the middle of the school and university summer holidays. Cornwall and Devon are pretty much full at that time of year, even without an eclipse.
A large influx of visitors is expected at the busiest time of the year. Some still believe that the problem is being exaggerated, and that interest in the event will not be that great. They may be right, although it is a gamble, but the media do not seem to agree, and they are professionals at judging public interest. The BBC estimates that 6,000 members of the media will be in Cornwall. Sky News will deploy 80 per cent. of its satellite relay stations, and expects to reach 70 million people in broadcasts to 40 countries around the world.
Judging by international experience of other eclipses, the county expects 100,000 astronomers and specialist eclipse chasers to arrive. Interest will be further generated by the study of the eclipse as the central focus of the 1998–99 national core curriculum for science for every school in the country, with many schools already booking visits to the county.
§ Mr. Anthony Steen (Totnes)I did not know that we had a Minister for the eclipse, but I think that I can assist the hon. Gentleman. As the southern part of my constituency in the South Hams—the tip around 167 Salcombe, where I fortunately live—will have the same advantages for watching the eclipse as Cornwall, the public could view it from Devon, thereby reducing the number of people going to Cornwall, and the problems to which the hon. Gentleman refers. People can come to my constituency to see the eclipse as well as go to Cornwall.
§ Mr. TaylorI shall make reference to south-west Devon, because it faces the same problems, which are not unique to Cornwall, although we shall bear the brunt of them. West Cornwall will have the first and the longest eclipse, and will have the most problems—bookings certainly suggest that.
How many people will come, and can we cope? Some 500,000 people live in the county. The number of people expected during the eclipse period will far outreach the capacity of the county's infrastructure, which is able to cope with about 900,000 without special measures. That is only 150,000 more than the usual August holiday population, so anything in excess of 150,000 visitors for the eclipse will cause problems. However, we expect far more than that.
It is estimated that 1.2 million visitors can get into the county by road, provided that they spread out their travel over a realistic period rather than arrive immediately before and leave immediately after the eclipse. Travel about 10 days before and 10 days after the eclipse would be realistic. That would bring the population up to about 1.7 million, rather than the 900,000 that the existing infrastructure could cope with.
It is almost impossible to estimate how many people will arrive by train, on cruise liners—many people have already booked berths—by yacht and by air on the many special flights into Newquay that are being arranged. That is likely to bring a further 100,000 visitors.
By that stage, main roads will be jammed, as already happens on summer weekends in many parts of the county when hundreds of thousands travel to temporary camp sites. Sewerage and mains water provision for those sites is a serious problem.
Many estimates far exceed those figures. The general prediction is in excess of 2 million visitors, and some estimates have been as high as 4 million. When we met the chief constable, he said, "That can't be allowed. We can't take more than 2 million." I asked him how we can prevent them coming, once they are in their cars and on their way, let alone stuck in a traffic jam, but there is no obvious answer.
The Cornish riviera brochure gives us a feel of the problem. It is important to understand that this event is not being promoted by the tourist industry in Cornwall. Official brochures deliberately downplay the event, because of the concern about the number of visitors. The brochure provides
essential reading for intending visitors to Cornwall, before, during and after the 1999 eclipse of the sunby giving "Dos" and "Don'ts". It says:
- "Do allow plenty of time for your journey and travel early.
- Do bring essential toiletries, water, or drinks and packaged food.
- Do expect delays and traffic disruption, please be patient.
- Do keep abreast of radio traffic information for local updates.
- Use Park and Ride facilities wherever possible.
168 - Don't set off without a firm confirmation of accommodation.
- Don't travel on the day of eclipse.
- Don't observe the eclipse without following the recommended safety precautions."
§ Mr. Adrian Sanders (Torbay)The danger to the naked eye is an important point to mention. I am particularly concerned about children and visitors who may not be aware of the information available in the build-up to this event. Could the Government provide public information to ensure that people protect their eyes in the hour before the eclipse?
§ Mr. TaylorThe Government have an extremely important role that goes way beyond anything that we can do in the two counties.
I want to concentrate on the capacity in the area because, if it is exceeded, the worst case scenario would be a disaster involving huge road gridlocks, supply failure problems for food, money and petrol, mains water supply failures with taps running dry and emergency services unable to reach casualties or incidents.
The Minister may think that this is primarily a local issue. It will happen locally, but if an unexpected natural event caused such problems, huge support would be available. Because it is predictable, so far no support is available.
There are two key problems, the first of which involves sewerage and water. South West Water's best estimate is that it can purify and distribute water at a rate that would sustain a population of between 900,000 and 1 million, which is half the estimate of the number of visitors. South West Water has said that the take-up of spare bedrooms in domestic residences by friends, family and unofficial bed and breakfast guests will use all the available capacity of sewage treatment plants. That does not take account of any of the planned temporary camp sites, one of which will take 200,000—a population the size of Plymouth.
All camp site portaloo waste will have to be disposed of by other means, and not during the eclipse, because of traffic congestion and other difficulties. That is likely to be difficult, and will cause concern about noise, odour and pollution. We do not know whether it will be possible to supply pure water at reasonable pressure to those sites. South West Water is currently working on that. It is essential to draw Ministers' attention to the funding difficulties, and to the severe risk to public health from water and sewage problems.
Secondly, the emergency services will be affected. In a monthly newsletter to Cornwall's 312 general practitioners, the local medical committee recently announced:
Eclipse Health Tip of the Month—Don't get pregnant in November".The committee believes that, nine months from now, jams caused by the eclipse could make it impossible for expectant mums to get to hospital in time.That sounds quite funny, but the problem will not affect just expectant mums—although in that regard it is actually fairly serious. Any casualty may find it difficult to get to a hospital. Health services have already expressed concern about how they will cope when so many people flood into the county. Normal clinics may have to be suspended, and doctors and district nurses may have to be positioned around the county in order to deal with casualties, rather 169 than assuming that ambulances will be able to take casualties to hospitals. The ambulance service has told me that it is budgeting for at least one extra air ambulance, as well as motor-cycle medics and extra ambulances. It believes that it may have to call on the Royal Air Force to give helicopter assistance, and that it may also need the Royal Naval Auxiliary Service.
The key problem is a combination of severe congestion and the fact that the county is surrounded on three sides by water. For the most part, there are no neighbouring services to help out if ours are overstretched. There is only one main general hospital in Cornwall, along with Derriford hospital, which serves east Cornwall and the Plymouth area. Although much excellent work is already being put into planning, there is only so much that local services can afford—and that, of course, will have a knock-on effect on the provision of services during the rest of the year. Moreover, there is only so much that local services can do at any price, because of the practical difficulties.
The combination of hot weather, camping, overheated vehicles and open-air festivals is bound to cause a problem. A large number of festivals are being organised, although the best advice would be not to organise them. The difficulty is deciding what to do with all those people for all that time, as the eclipse will last for only about 20 minutes. It will be a problem either way. I understand, however, that some major bands want to give concerts on the day, and that will bring into the county people who would not have gone there to see the eclipse.
The usual summer increase in crime will be amplified. That increase inevitably happens when extra people are present, but in this case the police will be further stretched by the need for traffic control, and by the many large events taking place. The police and other emergency services have already cancelled all leave, and will be fully manned from 30 July until 22 August, at considerable cost. I pity them: having had no holiday in the summer, they will then be allowed no holiday in the new year because of the millennium celebrations.
The Devon and Cornwall constabulary has made an initial request to the Ministry of Defence for assistance for all three services with traffic control, recovery, the provision of helicopters for route monitoring and medical facilities during the two main weeks. Measures exist allowing the Government to declare a need for military aid to the civil community, and to agree to finance it from the contingency fund. Such aid may be needed to assist the south-west's emergency services. Support already being considered goes as far as the use of a field ambulance regiment for field hospitals, the secondment of additional doctors and dentists to help with primary care, the provision of helicopters for the movement of emergency supplies and for traffic monitoring, and the employment of the Royal Engineers to help with roads, tracking on camp sites if the weather is wet, and water supply. Someone said to me, "If it is wet, there will be no problem." On the contrary, if it is wet there may be 2 million people in the area with nothing to look at, experiencing appalling conditions. They will be on temporary camp sites, with no proper sewerage and water.
When I asked the fire service how it would cope, a senior officer admitted that, if road congestion is anything like as severe as it is expected to be, the service does not know how it would transport firefighters to emergencies, especially if they are on the main roads.
170 I have already raised the costs of the eclipse with the Prime Minister. They will have to be borne by ratepayers, the health service and the police, and they will be considerable. The estimate provided by Cornwall county council following consultation with all the emergency services, and with local government, is about £5 million. That amount has been committed, but the need is greater, and many local authorities do not think that they will be able to meet that need. The police have asked the Home Office for additional support, but have received no positive response. Work is under way to produce a more co-ordinated effort. I think that there will be results early in the new year, and I hope that whichever Minister is responsible will agree to a meeting.
Without extra help, our ambulance, police and other services will struggle to cope. Central Government will benefit from extra revenue generated by the eclipse, and businesses in the counties will certainly benefit, but emergency and other public services will bear a cost with no extra return.
When I raised the matter with the Prime Minister, he said that funding mechanisms allowed for it. I think that, after a little more research, the Minister will agree that there is no eclipse fund as such, and that the source of any extra funding is not obvious.
I stress that we need not just financial but practical support. I do not expect the Minister to promise huge sums today—I have participated in too many Adjournment debates to expect that—but I hope that the debate will help to focus Ministers' attention on a problem that has not received the national attention it deserves, perhaps because an even bigger event, the millennium, will take place later in the same year. The Jubilee line extension may or may not be ready for the dome, but it is certain that no new roads will be built to cater for the eclipse in Cornwall.
I am very pleased about the vast amount of preparation being undertaken by local councils, co-ordinating groups, emergency services and the Cornish eclipse county planning co-ordinator, but I fear that it is not enough. The Government should recognise that this is a national event, which will need national support. The problem is exacerbated by an accident of geography, and by sheer uncertainty about the number of people who may arrive. That makes planning next to impossible.
As recently as last night, the Government were not sure who would respond to the debate. The issue, after all, is covered by the Department of Health, the Ministry of Defence, the Home Office and, of course, the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. I welcome this Minister, and suggest that it would be practical to give our county co-ordinating committee a point of contact, in helping to co-ordinate the Government's response.
I do not know whether the Minister fancies the job, but what we need is a Minister for the eclipse.
§ The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Environment, Transport and the Regions (Mr. Nick Raynsford)I thank the hon. Member for Truro and St. Austell (Mr. Taylor) for giving us an opportunity to discuss an issue that has already been a subject of considerable debate, and of careful planning in Devon and Cornwall. I appreciate all the concerns that he raised. 171 I thank him for his offer of a new job, but, for reasons that I shall explain, I must decline it. I already have a number of responsibilities, and I believe that the mechanisms that will be provided will enable Devon and Cornwall to respond to the challenge.
As the hon. Gentleman said, this will be the first total eclipse visible from the UK mainland since June 1927, and it will be of interest to many people. It has obvious implications for the police, local authorities and other emergency planning services. I recognise that, and will describe the steps that will be taken. I also recognise the health issues, and will speak to my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Health about advising the public of the risks involved in viewing the eclipse with the naked eye.
The Devon and Cornwall constabulary will, of course, play a major role in managing the influx of extra visitors. I understand that, in recent months, the chief constable has raised with the Home Office the issue of the additional expenditure arising from the major public order operation that the police will need to undertake because of the large number of visitors who are expected to travel to Cornwall.
My right hon. Friend the Home Secretary, who is responsible for emergency planning in England and Wales, expects local authority emergency planners to deal with issues arising from major incidents or emergencies according to the principles of integrated emergency management. That is an all-hazards approach to emergency planning, which encourages local emergency planners to plan with all the agencies that are likely to be involved in a major incident response. The chief characteristics of plans developed according to the principles of integrated emergency management are that they should be non-specific and flexible, and that they should work well regardless of an incident's cause. They are therefore ideal to handle an event such as the eclipse.
It is fundamental to arrangements for dealing with an emergency that the first response should be at local level. If the scale of an incident overwhelms local resources, the first recourse is usually to mutual-aid arrangements with services in adjacent areas, and the second to military aid. The eclipse is not an unforeseen emergency, as the hon. Member for Truro and St. Austell recognised; it is not a sudden danger requiring immediate action. An eclipse is an event for which there has been sufficient time for local services to plan and, accordingly, to seek assistance under mutual-aid arrangements if that is required.
From time to time, all police forces must deal with major public events, some of which are regular and some unexpected. The role of the police in controlling any outbreaks of disorder is to preserve the peace, uphold the law and prevent the commission of offences. Police tactics and decisions on how to achieve those objectives are a matter for the independent operational judgment of chief police officers. My right hon. Friend the Home Secretary expects that additional costs arising from unique occasions should usually be met from the force's budget and by using its reserves. In certain exceptional circumstances, my right hon. Friend would consider an application for a special grant, although such grants are rarely given, as the criteria are tough. The additional expenditure incurred by the force must be exceptional and of a scale likely to threaten its efficiency.
172 I understand that Devon and Cornwall constabulary has estimated that the additional cost of policing the eclipse next year will be about £600,000. That is less than half of 1 per cent. of the force's current budget. On the basis of information so far provided by the Devon and Cornwall police authority, it is doubtful whether it will be able to meet the criteria for a special grant that have previously been applied. I understand that the Association of Chief Police Officers, which has had a working party looking into the issue, is of the opinion that forces should not ordinarily be given special assistance and that Government funding should be allocated through the police funding formula.
As the hon. Member for Truro and St. Austell knows, police funding is allocated by means of a needs-based formula. Devon and Cornwall constabulary has done quite well under it. Over the past two years, the force has been able to increase its budget by more than the national average—by 4 per cent. in 1997–98 and by 4.5 per cent. in 1998–99. In those years, the average increase for police authorities in England and Wales was just 3.7 per cent. In the current financial year, Devon and Cornwall police authority has a budget of £167.4 million, which is a £7.2 million increase over the previous year.
In 1997–98, Devon and Cornwall constabulary was able to increase the number of police officers by 98 to 2,962. That contrasts with an overall reduction in police numbers in England and Wales of 302. At the same time, recorded crime in the Devon and Cornwall police area fell by 8.4 per cent., compared with an average reduction in England and Wales of 7.8 per cent.
My right hon. Friend the Home Secretary announced on 21 July that, over the next three years, police funding would increase by £1.24 billion. Overall police funding will increase by 2.65 per cent. next year, a further 2.8 per cent. in the following year and an extra 4 per cent. in 2001–2. Provisional police funding settlements for each police authority for 1999–2000 will be announced, as the hon. Member for Truro and St. Austell knows, in the reasonably near future, at the same time as the local government settlement.
§ Mr. SteenIs it the view of the Minister and the police that there will not be an invasion of tourists to watch this sight?
§ Mr. RaynsfordI ask the hon. Gentleman to bear with me. The hon. Member for Truro and St. Austell rightly made the point that no one knows for sure how many people will visit. One cannot anticipate for such an event. The point that I am trying to get across is that the potential scale of additional pressures can largely be foreseen, and measures can be implemented to ensure that this opportunity—it is an opportunity, as the hon. Member for Totnes (Mr. Steen) and others have emphasised—can be taken without unreasonable and disastrous consequences. The hon. Member for Truro and St. Austell has raised serious issues, which need to be addressed.
I have covered the subject of police funding, and shall move on to the other services for which the eclipse will have implications, as the hon. Member for Truro and St. Austell rightly emphasised. Emergency planning in the water industry is one of the other main areas affected. In June, under the provisions of section 208 of the Water Industry Act 1991, the Department issued the Security and 173 Emergency Measures (Water and Sewerage Undertakers) Direction 1998. It requires all water and sewerage companies in England, including South West Water, to make contingency plans, based on the integrated emergency planning concept, to cater for all types of emergency, irrespective of the cause.
The direction specifies the main resources and facilities that water companies should provide in an emergency and the need to consult and co-operate with all relevant bodies. It states that priority should be given to the domestic needs of sick, elderly and disabled people, hospitals, schools and other vulnerable sectors of the community. It also states that regard should be given to the needs of non-domestic users and, in accompanying guidance, examples of livestock and essential food industries are given.
One of the most significant things in the new direction, which was not in the preceding 1989 direction, is that it provides for the Secretary of State to specify the amount of water that an undertaker should provide in an emergency. Companies have been notified that that is 10 litres of drinking water a head per day. New plans to comply with the direction must be submitted to the Secretary of State by 1 April—well before the eclipse—having first been subjected to independent audit.
It is important that all areas that are likely to be affected by the extra work created by the eclipse should keep in close contact. I know that, over the past 12 months, there has been a series of inter-agency meetings involving all those with an interest. An emergency planning co-ordination group has been taking a strategic overview of the problem and, at operational level, the plan review working party has been considering the issues. Such cross-service work is vital in identifying potential problems and producing appropriate solutions.
On resources, I know that there have been calls for the Government to use available measures—under what is known as the Bellwin scheme—to help local authorities cope financially with emergencies. The scheme is designed to prevent an undue financial burden falling on council tax payers of an authority that is affected by an emergency or disaster that threatens life or property. An incident for which assistance is sought must involve clearly exceptional conditions by local standards, and damage to local authority infrastructure for communities must be exceptional, too. In the past, the scheme has generally been activated following events such as freak storms or floods—most recently, severe flooding across the midlands over Easter.
On the face of it, expenditure that authorities might incur as a result of the eclipse seems likely to be outside the scheme's criteria. However, we would of course consider any case that an authority might make for the 174 activation of the scheme. If some of the worst prognoses of the hon. Member for Truro and St. Austell turned out—unfortunately—to be true and there were very serious problems, the authority would unquestionably be in a position to seek assistance under the Bellwin scheme. I hope that that will not be so. I hope that, with sufficient forward planning, the risk can be minimised. However, I would not rule out altogether the need for such assistance in the event of a serious breakdown of normal administrative arrangements.
As I have stressed, careful planning will be absolutely vital to make the most appropriate arrangements and, indeed, to make the most of the opportunity that is presented by this unusual event. Many more people in Devon and Cornwall will benefit through offering bed-and-breakfast facilities to visitors. Farmers and other landowners stand to gain considerably by offering campsites to cater for the expected 500,000 additional campers who cannot be accommodated on existing sites. I understand that special provisions allow sites on which camping would not normally be permitted to be brought into use for a limited period. That clearly provides an opportunity to cope with the numbers of people, and should raise income for farmers who have made available sites for such use.
I have seen estimates that bed-and-breakfast charges and campsite fees for extra visitors could bring in more than £150 million to the area. The take-up in the unused capacity for hotels and other accommodation will also generate significant income. Given last summer's disappointing weather, I know that several hotel and tourist interests in the west country have been looking for ways in which to increase their revenue. I hope that the eclipse will provide such an opportunity. Obviously, there is an opportunity to encourage people to make a proper holiday of visiting Cornwall, rather than just going for the day. That will benefit the local economy.
The situation is therefore by no means all doom and gloom. Indeed, there is no doubt that people in other areas in Britain wish that the eclipse could be viewed from their location. I noted the naked appeal of the hon. Member for Totnes for people to go to his constituency rather than Cornwall to view the eclipse. The eclipse will present the local tourism industry with a great opportunity to promote itself in both pleasure and business to the vast number of visitors whom the major event will attract. Many visitors will be visiting the area for the first time and may be encouraged to go back, which would be in the long-term interest of the west country's economy. I am certain that local businesses, local people, local authorities and others who have a wealth of experiences in tourism will ensure that best use is made of this wonderful opportunity for Devon and Cornwall.