§ 9. Mr. Robert Syms (Poole)If he will list the assumptions on which his new growth forecasts have been based. [56866]
§ The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Stephen Byers)Full details of the Treasury's new forecasts were published in the pre-Budget report on 3 November. They were based on a number of realistic assumptions.
§ Mr. SymsGiven the scepticism of the Chancellor's growth forecasts shown by many economic forecasters, is the Chancellor happy for the achievement or not of those forecasts to be the judge and jury of his chancellorship?
§ Mr. ByersIt is worth examining the average of the independent forecasts for next year, which is 1.1 per cent. The European Union is forecasting growth at 1.3 per cent. We are able to forecast that growth figure because the economy is well placed as a result of the tough decisions that the Government took last year. We have given independence to the Bank of England—we have not heard the shadow Chancellor confirm whether the Conservatives would continue that arrangement—reduced the deficit by £20 billion and ensured that we have strong and robust public finances. That is what we have done, and I think that it is unfortunate that the hon. Gentleman has not acknowledged that, since his election to the House in May last year, unemployment in his constituency has dropped by 32 per cent.
§ Mr. Jim Cousins (Newcastle upon Tyne, Central)Can the Minister assure me that, built into every one of the Government's forecasts, will be a firm commitment to maintaining social support for pensioners and children—an approach that distinguishes us from the Conservatives?
§ Mr. ByersWe shall certainly do that. I am sure that my hon. Friend welcomes the news today of the creation 1007 of 500 jobs on Tyneside in the ship repair industry. That is good news for both our constituencies.
I can assure my hon. Friend about the Government's commitment to benefits and to social infrastructure, but the Conservative party cannot do the same. Yesterday, the Opposition announced no clear policy on pensions and their uprating and, today, they refused to confirm whether child benefit would be safe in their hands. The Opposition are prepared to talk down our economy, ignoring its underlying strengths. There are 400,000 more people in work compared with May last year and we are tackling the budget deficit and ensuring that inflation is at its target. The Opposition are prepared to talk down our economy but will not give clear answers to simple questions. They are not a credible Opposition, but a shambles of an Opposition.
§ Mr. John Whittingdale (Maldon and East Chelmsford)On Tuesday, the Chancellor described his growth forecasts as "prudent" and "cautious". Today, the Chief Secretary has said that they are "realistic". Why, then, is it almost impossible today to find a single independent forecaster who agrees with them? Will the Minister explain why the Chancellor is almost alone in upgrading his growth forecasts for the year after next? Will he give an assurance that the Chancellor will not be forced to return to the House in a few months to admit that, once again, he got it wrong?
§ Mr. ByersMost independent forecasters—out of the 45 consulted—anticipate growth next year to average 1.1 per cent. The most effective forecast for two years' time from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which was published last week, is in line with the figures produced in the pre-Budget report. They are the facts; they are not fantasy. Another fact is that, when the shadow Chancellor was a Treasury Minister, inflation was at 10 per cent. and interest rates were at 15 per cent. They are not fantasy figures. They are real figures and, as a result, more than 1 million people lost their jobs.