§ 5. Mr. Richard Spring (West Suffolk)If he will make a statement on future trends in the balance of payments. [41676]
§ The Paymaster General (Mr. Geoffrey Robinson)The balance of payments is forecast to record a deficit of 0.75 per cent. over the next two years.
§ Mr. SpringWill the hon. Gentleman confirm that we have just had the largest quarterly trade deficit for many years? Is not the turnaround in our current account in two years—a deterioration of £11 billion—a shocking indictment of the Government and their policies?
§ Mr. RobinsonThe hon. Gentleman should be aware that a deficit of 0.75 per cent. of gross domestic product is, historically, a low level. We need no lectures from the Opposition on that level—under their mismanagement of the economy, it rose to 4 per cent. of GDP, which is five times higher than the level that we are forecasting.
§ Mr. Jim Cousins (Newcastle upon Tyne, Central)Are not the economic difficulties that our trading partners in Japan and south-east Asia experiencing bound to have an impact on the British balance of payments? If our reaction to that were to damage trade even further, and if similar actions were taken by our partners in the United States and Europe, would not the result be a downward spiral of economic activity that could affect the whole world, not least the economy of north-east England, which is so heavily dependent on the continuation of that trade?
§ Mr. RobinsonMy hon. Friend is correct. What would most damage trade is the adoption of Opposition policies, particularly on economic and monetary union. Our policies are for long-term stability and steady growth. Manufacturing is forecast to grow—I point out to Conservative Members that these are the CBI's figures—from 1.3 to 2.5 per cent. and exports are forecast to grow from 3.5 to 4.5 per cent., which is healthy growth.