§ 7. Mr. MilburnTo ask the Secretary of State for Health what estimates she has made of the impact of the growing elderly population on health expenditure; and if she will make a statement.
§ Mr. YeoIt is estimated that slightly under 0.5 per cent. growth in resources will be required in the hospital and community health services next year to take account of all demographic changes. That is much less than the estimated increase of at least 2.5 per cent. in hospital and community health activity which we expect the national health service to achieve as a result of the £1 billion extra funding announced by my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
§ Mr. MilburnWhy has planned spending on the NHS been cut by 2.3 per cent. in real terms for next year, when the Minister acknowledges that the growth in the elderly population requires an increase of at least 0.5 per cent. simply to stand still? Is it not a fact that his failure to take account of the growth in the numbers of elderly people 684 when setting the health budget means that there will be real cuts in patient care next year? What is his message to my constituents, who face yet another year when health budgets will be squeezed as a result of his Department's failure to make available growth funding to my health authority in Darlington? When will the Government come clean about the real shortfall in NHS expenditure?
§ Mr. YeoI am sorry that after such a short time here the hon. Gentleman has succumbed to the Opposition obsession with inputs rather than outputs. The statistics of interest to elderly people are those that show what the health service is doing for them, such as the 54 per cent. rise since 1979 in the annual total of hip replacement or the 91 per cent. increase in the number of elderly people treated as in-patients.
But if the hon. Gentleman wants a battle about inputs, I remind him that spending on the health service has risen by 60 per cent. in real terms since 1979—upfrom 4.6 per cent. of gross domestic product to 5.7 per cent.—and that for the first time in British history, under the present Government, more taxpayers' money is being spent on health than on defence.
§ Mr. DickensCan my hon. Friend confirm that the elderly of today are most fortunate because they live under a national health service which has developed medical techniques unthought of years ago, with drugs beyond their wildest dreams being available? I look forward to immortality. I warn the Opposition of that.
§ Mr. YeoI am sure that, with the benefit of the NHS, my hon. Friend will achieve his goal of immortality. I agree with the points he makes, but there are others of importance too, not least the relevance of the patients charter to elderly people. That has now set maximum waiting times for hip replacements, knee replacements, cataracts and a whole range of other treatments which are of great relevance in delivering even higher quality health care to our elderly population.