Temperature (Hansard, 14 November 1990)

§ 5. Mr. Corbyn
To ask the Secretary of State for the Environment what predictions his Department is making concerning the rise in average temperature over the next 10 years.

§ Mr. Chris Patten
The intergovernmental panel on climate change estimates that, as a result of human 566 activities, average global temperatures will increase by 0.2 deg Celsius during the next 10 years. The uncertainty range of that estimate, which does not take account of any natural climate variability, is 0.15 deg and 0.3 deg Celsius.

§ Mr. Corbyn
Does the Secretary of State agree that, as far as measurement is possible, that is the highest increase in the past 10,000 years? [Interruption.] This is a serious matter and I hope that the Secretary of State and other Conservative Members will treat it seriously.
Is the Minister aware that that is the highest increase in the past 10,000 years measured from air samples in the Antarctic and that in order merely to contain current levels of concentration we would require a 60 per cent. drop in emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide? In those circumstances, does the Secretary of State agree that it is necessary to take much stronger and more urgent action to cut the emissions of greenhouse gases and to promote afforestation schemes and the protection of the southern ocean and the savannah grasslands, which are the major areas where the change from carbon dioxide to oxygen takes place?

§ Mr. Patten
As the hon. Gentleman will doubtless know, there was an extremely successful conference last week in Geneva at which we reached an outline agreement on climate change and global warming, which should lead to the start of negotiations on a climate change convention next February. The science is not quite as the hon. Gentleman described it, but one of the encouraging features of last week's conference was not only the commitment to action by all states, but the fact that, I think for the first time, nobody disagreed fundamentally with the scientific conclusions that were advanced.

§ Mr. Squire
Does my right hon. Friend recall that recently on this important subject the Labour party committed itself to phasing out nuclear power and to a greater use of coal as against gas, at the same time bringing forward a still earlier timetable for stabilising carbon dioxide? Will my right hon. Friend confirm that those do not add up and that that is simply a sign of scientific ignorance among Labour Members?

§ Mr. Patten
They certainly do not add up. The Labour party is the only organisation outside the executive committee of the National Union of Mineworkers that thinks that coal is cleaner than gas. It has also said that we can secure the environmental objectives and the goals that we want at virtually no cost. That is frankly dishonest and I hope that the Labour party will face up to some of those problems rather more honestly.

§ Mrs. Ann Taylor
In view of what the Secretary of State has just said, will he confirm that he wanted to accept the European target on the stabilisation of carbon dioxide emissions by 2000 and that it was the Prime Minister who intervened to insist that the target date should be 2005? Perhaps while the Secretary of State is answering that question, he will also tell the House whether he agrees with the right hon. Member for Henley (Mr. Heseltine) that the Government could do better in their action on global warming and that Britain should play a more positive role in the development of EC environmental policy.

§ Mr. Patten
I know of no one at the Geneva conference last week who did not think that we played an extremely prominent and helpful role in securing agreement. If the 567 hon. Lady had spoken to some of the European Free Trade Association, European Community, and other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development members, she would have found that that was the case. As to agreement within the Community, despite the astonishing intervention of hon. Member for Dagenham (Mr. Gould), the shadow spokesman on the environment, in writing to every other European environment Minister, very few of whom had heard of him, to urge them to try to isolate us at that meeting, we secured a wholly satisfactory outcome which recognised the different problems and programmes of a number of European countries. The agreement enabled Britain and EFTA to give a strong lead at the Geneva conference, which ensured that it was as successful as I hope that the hon. Member for Dagenham would wish.

§ Mr. Patrick Thompson
Bearing in mind the Government's positive lead, will my right hon. Friend pay tribute to the climatic research unit at East Anglia university, which has done excellent work on global warming? Does he agree that a sober and scientific appraisal of the facts is needed, rather than party political posturing?

§ Mr. Patten
The unit to which my hon. Friend draws attention has done outstanding work. That is recognised not only in Europe but beyond. I am delighted that, as a result of the public expenditure settlement announced last week in the autumn statement, we are substantially increasing the funding of environmental research on climate change and other matters.

§ Mr. Simon Hughes
Is the Secretary of State not aware of the despair felt by many environmentalists because the Government are content merely to stabilise emissions over the next 15 years while other members of the European Community—such as Germany—are clear that they can reduce emissions by 15 or 20 per cent. by 2005? If Germany can do that, why cannot we do so? Is not that another example of short-term national political considerations being placed at the forefront of international environmental considerations? Where is the principle?

§ Mr. Patten
The hon. Gentleman may not know that, according to returns made to the International Energy Agency, six European countries have not declared any stabilisation or reduction targets for carbon dioxide. Different countries have different sets of problems and some of those with a high input from nuclear energy find certain issues rather easier to resolve than we do. The hon. Gentleman should also be aware that the Germans are talking about an orientation, rather than the pledged target that we have set.