HC Deb 21 April 1988 vol 131 cc980-1
9. Mr. Flynn

To ask the Secretary of State for the Home Department what assessment has been made of any correlation between the recently published statistics on crime levels and reduction in the percentage of young people in the population.

Mr. Hurd

Evidence suggests that population changes make a relatively small contribution to changes in recorded crime and known offending. The peak age for offending is 15 and our crime prevention initiatives are in a large part directed at juvenile offending. I shall, for example, expect to see some of the schemes under the safer cities programme specifically for young people.

Mr. Flynn

I am grateful for that reply. There have been encouraging changes in the crime figures, which will be welcome in all quarters of the House, but in those categories that predominantly involve young people there have been some severe increases. There has been a 9 per cent. increase in robbery, a 12 per cent. increase in sexual offences, and a 13 per cent. increase in crimes of violence against the person.

As there will be a decrease of one quarter in the number of 16 to 19-year-olds in the population in five years, and by omitting demographic changes, the statistics are as meaningless as unemployment figures that are not seasonally related. The value of future crime figures will be obscured unless they are related to demographic changes. Will the Minister give an assurance that future published crime statistics will relate as closely as possible to demographic changes?

Mr. Hurd

It is typical of the Opposition to question the figures. When crime increases, it is said to be all the fault of the Government. When there are signs of a better trend, it is said that they are all to do with demography—[Interruption.] That is the point that the hon. Member for Newport, West (Mr. Flynn) was seeking to make and it is a completely bogus one—[Interruption.]

Mr. Speaker

Order.

Mr. Hurd

If the hon. Gentleman will study the research, he will notice that what I have said is true. The impact of demography, either when the figures are up or when they are down, is very slight.

Mr. Ashby

In view of the heavier sentences that my right hon. Friend said had been passed in recent years, and in view of the increase in the number of violent crimes, has he come to any conclusion about the deterrent effect of giving heavier sentences for crimes of violence? Does not the situation also reflect upon his prison programme, in view of the overcrowding that exists? Is there any deterrent effect in heavier sentencing?

Mr. Hurd

Yes, I believe that there certainly is a deterrent effect in giving heavier sentences for violent crimes. That is part of the answer, just as the increase in the number of police is part of the answer. However, my hon. Friend's question, like the original question asked by the hon. Member for Newport, West (Mr. Flynn), goes further back, to matters that influence the lapse of juveniles into crime. They lead us on to other matters that we ought constantly to discuss, such as the role of teachers, the media and parents.