AIDS (Hansard, 25 November 1986)

§ 3. Mr. Kennedy
asked the Secretary of State for Social Services if he will give the projected estimated growth rate for acquired immune deficiency syndrome over the next five years; and if he will make a statement.

§ The Secretary of State for Social Services (Mr. Norman Fowler)
The latest published predictions by the communicable disease surveillance centre estimate that in the United Kingdom there will be 550 new cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome diagnosed in 1986, 1,300 in 1987 and 3,000 in 1988. Inevitably, these estimates involve a significant degree of uncertainty. There are no published predictions for the United Kingdom beyond 1988.

§ Mr. Kennedy
Given the one certainty that the problem will not go away and will get significantly and exponentially worse, will the Secretary of State further clarify the points that he made in his welcome announcement last week to the House, in particular the assurance that his colleague, the Minister of Health, gave over the future of the Public Health Laboratory Service? Given that assurance, may we take it that no reduction in either the funding or numbers of those laboratories is envisaged as part of the laudatory efforts being made to combat AIDS?

§ Mr. Fowler
Yes. Expenditure on the PHLS has not been cut. Indeed, spending has gone up in both cash and real terms. There are no plans to cut it, and no question of allowing AIDS work to be prejudiced by a lack of finance.

§ Dame Jill Knight
Has my right hon. Friend had an opportunity to make a clear and specific estimate of the cost to the NHS of treating the enormous number of AIDS victims up to 1988?

§ Mr. Fowler
Not as such. We estimate that expenditure by the Government on treatment and public education is running at about £17 million this year, and that figure will approximately double next year.

§ Mrs. Renée Short
Will the Secretary of State be more specific about the resources that he is prepared to allocate for the treatment of this problem? What will be provided for the regions, which have to deal with the majority of cases?

§ Mr. Fowler
We shall take into account the special needs of some regional health authorities which face particular problems, and the need for services for AIDS victims will be taken into account when the allocations to the health authorities are considered. For the next financial year, that consideration will take place over the next month or so.

§ Mr. McCrindle
If, as we all must hope, the public education campaign on AIDS is successful, is my right 124 hon. Friend satisfied that the sizable number of inquiries that it is likely to generate can be adequately coped with by the hospitals and health authorities? Is he satsified, too, that the co-ordination between the various charities operating in the area is adequate, and does he see himself as having a role to play in achieving adequate co-ordination?

§ Mr. Fowler
Yes, we shall do anything that we can to achieve better co-ordination of voluntary organisation work, which, as my hon. Friend suggests, is very important. As for health authority spending, we have asked every health authority in the country to send us its analysis of what is required in its district. Those reports will be with us by the end of next month.

§ Mr. Madden
Will the Secretary of State consider setting up regional Freefone telephone numbers to give callers advice and information on AIDS? On Saturday night I telephoned the Bradord AIDS line for information and was referred by a recorded message to the Terrence Higgins Trust in London. I rang that number every 10 minutes from 6.30 to 9.30, to be told that I was the 28th caller and that up to 400 calls a minute were being received. It is clear that the national publicity campaign that the Secretary of State is introducing will generate a mass of inquiries, with which the present arrangements are completely inadequate to deal.

§ Mr. Fowler
The hon. Gentleman is right when he says that there has been a very steep increase in the number of calls being received. A number of lines are giving advice. The College of Health has a national service and charities like the Terrence Higgins Trust also provide counselling. Other lines will become available literally within the next few weeks. We are taking advice from the organisations concerned, and if there is anything that we can do to help to keep the lines open by providing more lines, the Government will do just that.

§ Mr. Sims
Is my right hon. Friend aware that the relatively brief trials in the United States on the drug AZT suggest that although it may not be a cure it could delay the progress of this disease? Is he further aware that the Wellcome Foundation is putting a great deal of resources into work on this drug and that the development work is four times ahead of normal progress with a drug of this character? Will my right hon. Friend also confirm that, despite reports to the contrary, adequate quantities of this drug are now available for clinical trials in this country and that the reason for any delay in setting up such trials is to ensure that the trials are properly set up, and not because of any shortage of the drug?

§ Mr. Fowler
Yes, I think that I can confirm my hon. Friend's last point. Clinical trials are being set up in the United Kingdom. As my hon. Friend said, AZT is not a cure for AIDS, although in some cases it can prolong life and alleviate the symptoms in some patients.