§ 8. Mr. Home Robertsonasked the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if he will estimate what tonnage of wheat is likely to be carried over in United Kingdom intervention stores from the current year into the 1985–86 crop year.
§ Mr. MacGregorThere were 2.3 million tonnes of wheat in intervention in the United Kingdom on 16 499 January 1985 and a further 200,000 tonnes had been offered for intervention on that date. The quantity to be carried over into next season will depend on developments in the domestic and export markets, which it is not possible to forecast.
§ Mr. Home RobertsonIs the Minister aware that reliable sources have recently forecast that there could be a carry-over of 8 million tonnes of wheat into the next crop year in the European Community, including about 3 million tonnes in the United Kingdom? What is the point of spending up to £60 million on keeping that portion of 1984's bumper harvest in store, apparently indefinitely? Is there not an overwhelming case for shifting most of that surplus wheat to famine areas as soon as possible?
§ Mr. MacGregorAs I have said, it is difficult to be certain at this stage about the forecasts. However, I have not disguised the fact that we are likely to have surpluses. Within the Community we have already committed ourselves to sending 1.2 million tonnes in this marketing year to Ethiopia and the other drought-stricken countries. That is a major contribution, and a sign that the Government are doing all that they can to make use of the cereals surplus in that direction.
§ Sir Peter MillsWould not my hon. Friend be wiser to express that tonnage in store in terms of weeks' supplies, so that we knew exactly what we had in this country? In the past there have been serious difficulties for the consumer when we have run out. Of course overseas aid is right and proper, and this country—in particular British farmers—has been extremely generous in giving aid in the form of cereals to those in need.
§ Mr. MacGregorI agree with everything that my hon. Friend has said. Indeed, the NFU's "Send a million tonnes of wheat to Africa" campaign is to be warmly welcomed.
With regard to my hon. Friend's first point, it is certainly true that surpluses can erode quite rapidly in very bad years. Nevertheless, we face a substantial surplus this year. The important point about food aid or any cereal exports is that it is cheaper to export direct from the open market than through intervention. That is a very important point in connection with our policy on intervention.
§ Mr. WeetchDoes the Minister realise that the annual review of agriculture, published quite recently, showed that wheat farmers—many of whom are to be found in East Anglia—had a substantial rise in income, which was well above 20 per cent., while they produced uncontrolled surpluses? Does he realise that those two things together do not make any economic sense? What steps is the hon. Gentleman taking to restore a balance in the grain market? Does he recognise that such uncontrolled expansion in East Anglia is leading to serious environmental problems?
§ Mr. MacGregorI believe that we are getting on top of the environmental problems. I hope that the hon. Gentleman will also pay tribute to the efforts of farmers, because most of the increases have resulted from productivity and technological improvements. It has been a great success story for the United Kingdom that, during the past 10 years, it has moved from being a major importer of cereals to being a major exporter. It is only right to pay tribute to that and to comment on its importance for the British economy. In real terms, the recently announced farm incomes remain about 8 per cent. 500 below the 1982 level, while cereal prices are below what they were when we entered the Community. However, all that the hon. Gentleman says supports the view of the British Government that we should have major restraints on cereal prices, supported by the full application of the guaranteed thresholds. That is how we want to tackle it.
§ Mr. MacleanWill my hon. Friend note that in 1985 we need not apologise for the fact that this country has food surpluses? As we consider it economically sensible to have six months' supply of oil and 12 months' supply of coal against the present emergency, surely it is not to be deplored that we have three months' supply of meat or two months' supply of wheat in storage. Will he emphasise to the Britain housewife and to all the people in this country that food surpluses are essential and better than shortages, and that we could not feed the rest of the world if we did not create surpluses?
§ Mr. MacGregorI have already paid tribute to our cereal farmers. I am sure my hon. Friend will agree that it is a notable achievement, and much to be welcomed, that our self-sufficiency in the products that we grow has increased from 59 per cent. about 10 years ago to more than 80 per cent. today. I can just imagine what questions I would face if this country had a major deficiency in cereals, if prices soared and if the effect on the consumer was the opposite of what it is because of our success.