HC Deb 25 April 1985 vol 77 c982
10. Mr. Eggar

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer how many more people he expects will be employed by the end of 1986 as a result of the changes in national insurance contributions announced in his recent Budget.

Mr. Lawson

I expect the changes in national insurance contributions, which will take effect from October, to lead to a significant increase in jobs over the following two years.

Mr. Eggar

Has my right hon. Friend noted that independent forecasters have shown that the changes will bring about an increase in employment by as much as 350,000? Should not this change be widely welcomed by all those who are determined to reduce the unemployment statistics?

Mr. Lawson

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for the welcome that he has given to these measures. I believe that they have been widely welcomed by both sides of the House, except for a small minority who seek to make party political capital out of them. There have been a number of outside estimates — some of 150,000, some of 160,000 and some higher. Those increases are in addition to the employment created by the expansion of the community programme, which was announced in the Budget, and the proposed development of the youth training scheme. The changes will reduce unemployment over the same period by between 150,000 and 200,000. I am sure that all hon. Members will be pleased to know that during the past two years the number of people in work has risen by well over 600,000. Nothing like that has occurred in any other European country.

Mr. Wrigglesworth

Does the Chancellor accept the assessment by Sir John Hoskyns, the Prime Minister's former adviser, that the way in which the Chancellor has introduced these changes will lead to a loss of 10,000 jobs in senior levels of industry?

Mr. Lawson

I shall not sign up on any figure at all. It is clear that, taking the whole of the national insurance contribution changes into account, the net effect will be a significant increase in employment. I am sure that the whole House will welcome that.

Mr. Terry Davis

When will we get real figures for employment based on a count, instead of the Chancellor's estimates?

Mr. Lawson

The figures that are published are the best estimates that the Government are capable of making. Many of my hon. Friends believe that the figures exaggerate the position. Many of them believe that some people in what is known as the black economy are in work but are drawing unemployment benefit and are therefore included in the figures. Nevertheless, we go by the normal published figures.