HC Deb 08 March 1984 vol 55 c974
4. Mr. Skeet

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he is satisfied with the current and projected position of the balance of payments

Mr. Ian Stewart

Yes, Sir.

Mr. Skeet

Does my hon. Friend agree that there is a great variety of opinion with a wide margin of error? For example, for 1985 Phillips and Drew have given a projection of £1.1 billion on the minus side, whereas the London Business School has given a figure of £1.5 billion on the plus side. Where can one find reliability, and who has been turning in the best estimates?

Mr. Stewart

My hon. Friend is right to draw attention to the difficulty of making accurate forecasts of the balance of payments for any year, let alone those in the future. We achieved a healthy surplus of £2 billion on the balance of payments last year, and that, in my view, is satisfactory.

Mr. Skinner

Does the Minister agree that one reason why the Government have been placed in some difficulty once again this year is the appointment of Mr. MacGregor to the mining industry? He took on the miners last autumn and was stupid enough to say that he could stand an overtime ban for 50 years because he was saving the Coal Board money. The fact is that, as a result of an overtime ban of 18 or 19 weeks, not only has the Coal Board not saved money, but it has finished up with a big debt round its neck and is asking for more money from the taxpayer as a result of Mr. MacGregor's foolishness, when—

Mr. Speaker

Order. I am not certain that that has anything to do with the balance of payments.