HC Deb 14 June 1984 vol 61 cc1059-61
10. Mr. Winnick

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer when he now expects to see a substantial economic recovery.

Mr. Peter Rees

Economic recovery is well under way, with growth at 3 per cent. in 1983 and forecast growth of a further 3 per cent. in 1984.

Mr. Winnick

Is not unemployment due to rise substantially for a long time to come? Will the Chief Secretary confirm that so far in 1984 unemployment has increased by at least 70,000? Where are all the signs of economic recovery, when millions of people are denied the opportunity to earn their living?

Mr. Rees

The hon. Gentleman makes his own forecast of unemployment, but the employed labour force increased by 200,000 between March and December 1983.

Mr. Forman

Since non-oil exports are up substantially over the past year, as is industrial productivity, and since there are several other indicators of economic recovery, will my right hon. and learned Friend say whether he has any further measures in mind to reduce interest rates slightly, as that would help to sustain the recovery?

Mr. Rees

Yes. Our policy of rigorous control of public expenditure perhaps provides the most successful approach to the problem mentioned by my hon. Friend. Indeed, I remind the House of the candid and proper comment of the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Sparkbrook (Mr. Hattersley), that the assertion that a massive increase in effective demand would be a certain and automatic remedy is no longer convincing. We warmly endorse that conversion.

Mr. Dubs

Is the Chief Secretary pleased or anxious about the fact that a 3 per cent. growth rate appears to be going hand in hand with continuing high levels of unemployment?

Mr. Rees

Naturally we would prefer to see unemployment going down, but I do not know what conclusion to draw from the hon. Gentleman's proposition. We are content that our growth rate is one of the highest in western Europe.

Mr. Thurnham

Is my right hon. and learned Friend satisfied with the performance of the public sector? Does he intend to make further appointments to the Government Accountancy Service to seek further improvements in productivity in the public sector?

Mr. Rees

As the House will know, the appointment of a very distinguished member of the accountancy profession to the role of Chief Government Accountant has just been announced. I am sure that his influence will be pervasive and that he will be successful. I see no case at the moment for increasing the staff of the Government Accountancy Service, but naturally we keep that aspect of the Government's activity under close review.

Mr. Hattersley

Will the Chief Secretary tell the House in simple language whether the Government anticipate a substantial fall in unemployment between now and the end of the Parliament? Will he also tell the House whether the Government endorse the Opposition's view that a recovery which is so defined as to exclude putting Britain back to work is a recovery which ought not to be acceptable in a civilised society?

Mr. Rees

Clearly, we are as concerned as the right hon. Gentleman and his hon. Friends to see that unemployment is reduced. The House should recall another telling phrase of the right hon. Member for Birmingham, Sparkbrook (Mr. Hattersley) in a speech which deserves to be studied closely. He said that the country applauds the Labour party's compassion, but doubts its capacity.

Mr. Hattersley

I rise again simply to ask the Chief Secretary once again the question that I put to him, but which he did not answer. Do the Government expect a substantial fall in unemployment in the lifetime of this Parliament? Yes or no?

Mr. Rees

The right hon. Gentleman should know that we follow the policy that was adopted by the previous Labour Administration of not making forecasts of unemployment over a long period of time.