§ 1. Mr. Yeoasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is the level of output for manufacturing industry at the latest available date compared with 12 months previously.
§ The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Mr. Peter Rees)Manufacturing output in the three months to January 1984 is estimated to have been about 3.5 per cent. up on the level of the same period a year earlier.
§ Mr. YeoI thank my right hon. and learned Friend the Chief Secretary for that good news, but is he aware of the growing concern that that welcome upturn in manufacturing and in other sectors of the economy is not yet leading to any increase in the number of jobs? Therefore, will he consider taking further steps which will directly reduce unemployment?
§ Mr. ReesMy hon. Friend will be aware that the abolition of the national insurance surcharge was specifically designed to help in that area. Indeed, I should emphasise to the House that the abolition of the national insurance surcharge has relieved private sector employers of employment costs of about £3 billion a year. I hope that my hon. Friend will recognise that as a positive contribution to dealing with the problem.
§ Ms. Clare ShortHow does the level of manufacturing output compare with that of 1979? Will the right hon. and learned Gentleman tell the people of the west midlands when the Government aim to return them to the levels of output and employment of 1979?
§ Mr. ReesThe hon. Lady will be aware that the GDP average is now above the 1979 peak. She will also be aware of the dramatic increase in manufacturing exports over the past three months.
§ Mr. Beaumont-DarkDoes my right hon. and learned Friend agree that at long last there is a real sign of a recovery in midlands industry and that the foundry industry there is beginning to recover? However, does he further agree that if coking coal cannot get through to the foundries because of the miners' dispute many thousands of jobs will be lost because of that dispute, which has nothing to do with midlands industry?
§ Mr. ReesIt is a regrettable facet of that dispute that it is putting jobs at risk not only in the west midlands but in other parts of the country.
§ Mr. EvansWill the right hon. and learned Gentleman confirm that he expects employment in Britain's manufacturing industry to be lower at the end of the year than it is now?
§ Mr. ReesNo Administration have ever made forecasts of unemployment, because the variables are so enormous. If he reflects on the record of the Administration that he supported, he will find that they, too, were naturally prudent about making such forecasts.