§ 10. Mr. Allen McKayasked the Minister for Trade if he will estimate the effects upon the balance of trade for the current year of the recent changes in the price of oil.
§ Mr. Peter ReesNo, Sir. It is not possible to make a reliable estimate in view of the many uncertainties involved.
§ Mr. McKayIn view of the uncertainties, and bearing in mind that the Government's economic policy has been saved from complete collapse by North sea oil—oil production, which is expected to peak in about 1985, will have consequences for the oil trade and tax revenues and that will lead to a further decline—what steps has the Minister taken, or what steps is he about to take, to ensure that our non-oil trade recovers sufficiently to make good the deficit?
§ Mr. ReesI do not know what the hon. Gentleman has in mind. As I have said on many occasions, we have had three years of record surpluses on our current account. It is clear that the hon. Gentleman has overlooked that fact. What further recovery does he have in mind? I remind the House that my right hon. and learned Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer, in his Budget statement, said that North sea oil accounts for only 5 per cent. of our national income and raises in tax only 6 per cent. of Government revenue. We must get the problem in perspective.
Mr. J. Enoch PowellWill the Minister confirm that, despite the statistical difficulties in answering the question, it is a fact that our net oil trade is only one of the factors that have contributed to the major current account surplus of the past three or four years?
§ Mr. ReesI am very ready to confirm that fact. One element that Opposition Members—but not the right hon. Gentleman—constantly overlook is the contribution that is made by our service industries.