HC Deb 31 January 1983 vol 36 cc4-5
3. Dr. J. Dickson Mabon

asked the Secretary of State for Energy when he estimates the production of oil from the United Kingdom continental shelf will peak, and at what figure; and what is his estimate of production in 1990, 1995 and 2000.

The Minister of State, Department of Energy (Mr. Hamish Gray)

The 1982 Brown Book forecast shows that in 1985 production will be between 95 million and 130 million tonnes. It is not possible to give useful forecasts further ahead.

Dr. Mabon

That answer begs the question about net self-sufficiency in Britain to the end of the century and is hardly relevant to the 30 or so marginal fields that await exploitation. Do Department of Energy Ministers share the view that the present system of taxation, whatever its rate, is the only system and that proposals by the Institute for Fiscal Studies are to be rejected, or do they see some fundamental change in taxation as a way of leading marginal fields into production?

Mr. Gray

The right hon. Gentleman is well aware of the consultations that have taken place between the Department of Energy and United Kingdom Offshore Oil Association and between the UKOOA and my right hon.

and learned Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer. It would be wrong of me to anticipate what my right hon. and learned Friend will say, but I assure the right hon. Gentleman that all representations have been carefully considered.

Mr. Skeet

Would my right hon. Friend affirm the Brown Book figures if the oil price fell to $25 a barrel?

Mr. Gray

My hon. Friend is skilled in these matters and he will be able to make his estimates as well as we or outside bodies can. The estimates in the Brown Book were made when the oil price was substantially higher, and the estimates that will appear in this year's Brown Book will take account of any variations that might take place in the price of oil.