§ 15. Mr. Douglasasked the Secretary of State for Energy if he will make a statement on the number of North Sea fields which he expects to be in production in 1984 and the anticipated aggregate flows of oil and gas.
§ Mr. GrayIt is expected that by the end of 1984, 25 oilfields and seven gas fields will be in production in the United Kingdom section of the North Sea. Projections of production for oil and gas in 1984 and beyond are necessarily subject to wide ranges of uncertainty. Projections of oil production in 1984 given in the 1982 Brown Book are 95 million to 125 million tonnes.
§ Mr. DouglasI thank the Minister for that reply. Is there not a danger that, unless we get a reasonable and sensible policy, we shall become net oil importers by the late 1980s? Does he concede—his right hon. and learned Friend alluded to this matter a few weeks ago—that we must sort out the tax regime? What proposals on that matter does he envisage in the forthcoming Finance Bill?
§ Mr. GrayThe hon. Gentleman has been a Member long enough to know that at this stage there is no way in which I or my right hon. and learned Friend could comment on his thinking on tax matters. However, it is true to say that probably no other industry has a closer dialogue with the Government than the oil industry. The various representations made both within the industry and the House are carefully noted.
The future prospects for the North Sea are extremely bright. The seventh round was probably the most successful that we have had, and we expect great enthusiasm for the eighth round of licensing. The fact that the North Sea is in such a politically stable area is encouraging to the private sector.
§ Mr. DouglasWhy, then, are the Government selling Britoil?
§ Mr. ChapmanI appreciate that any estimate of oil and gas reserves must be rough, but have such estimates been revised upwards or downwards in the past three years in the light of new or no discoveries?
§ Mr. GrayThe Brown Book, which contains most of the North Sea activities and predictions, is revised on an annual basis.
§ Mr. HooleyIs it correct that we are rapidly moving to the production of 50 per cent. more oil than we need for domestic purposes? If so, is not that a dangerous depletion policy?
§ Mr. GrayI do not think so. That reflects the success of exploration in the North Sea. The hon. Gentleman should always bear in mind that if we reversed this policy and restricted development in the North Sea that could have a serious effect on many jobs.