§ 14. Mr. Dykesasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he is satisfied with the effects of his Budget announced on 10 March.
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweIt will be some time before it will be possible to give a considered answer to my hon. Friend's question.
§ Mr. DykesBut is there actually any demand pull inflation in the economy at present, and, if so, where?
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweInflation in the economy is due to a range of factors, including past higher money supply growth rates. It is being sustained by the substantial pay increases throughout the economy, following the collapse of the previous Government's pay policy.
§ Mr. FlanneryDoes the right hon. and learned Gentleman accept that unemployment will increase vastly as a result of his Budget? May we assume that he is attempting to balance the books? Does he think that he will be balancing the books if, ultimately, we produce nothing, sell nothing and everybody is out of work?
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweThat is a curiously unperceptive comment for the hon. Gentleman. It is not true in any respect. From his experience he should know that we shall not begin to achieve growth in employment and in the economy until we have conquered inflation. The prospects 1072 are that inflation will continue to come down, which will in due course enable interest rates to come down and create the conditions for exactly the opposite of what the hon. Gentleman fears will take place.
§ Mr. MarlowDoes my right hon. and learned Friend accept that one indicator of the effects of the Budget, and particularly of industrial confidence, is the Financial Times all-share index? What has happened to that index since the Budget?
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweIt is one of many indicators of confidence in the consequences of the Budget. Other indicators point in the same direction. One of the most notable, which was commented on earlier this week, is the fact that private housing starts have risen from 6,600 in December to 10,300 in January. The president of the House Builders Federation observed that that offered an optimistic prospect for the year ahead.
§ Dr. BrayDoes not the right hon. and learned Gentleman's claim that the Budget is not contractionary imply his expectation of a substantial reduction in the exchange rate soon? So what does he intend to do about it?
§ Sir Geoffrey HoweIt implies no such thing.