HC Deb 21 July 1981 vol 9 cc151-2
6. Mr. Warren

asked the Secretary of State for Defence if he will make a statement on the accuracy of public weather forecasts.

Mr. Goodhart

During the past 12 months, I am told that the public weather forecasts issued by the Meteorological Office have achieved a mean accuracy nationally of 83 per cent. The forecasts issued on BBC Radio 4 at 17.55 for 30 hours ahead had an 80 per cent. accuracy, whilst those issued at 07.55 for the following 16 hours had an 86 per cent. accuracy. Improved technology such as rainfall radars, satellite imagery and faster computers should contribute to an improvement in medium-range forecasts next year.

Mr. Warren

How does my hon. Friend know that those figures are right? Also, will he accept that the rain-soaked British public simply will not believe them this summer? Could we possibly have happier-looking chaps on television telling us about their depressions?

Mr. Goodhart

The only people nationally who are capable of checking on the Meteorological Office forecasts are those at the Meteorological Office. As for people looking brighter when giving forecasts, it would not be appropriate, if there were storms ahead, for forecasters to look too happy. But I think that they would appreciate more time on the BBC and on the media as a whole so as to have the opportunity of giving more precise forecasts than they can at present.

Mr. Robert C. Brown

Is the Minister aware that continuing suggestions that there should be privatisation of Royal ordnance factories are causing fairly stormy scenes—

Mr. Speaker

Order. I fear that matters are about to get stormier. The hon. Gentleman had better look for fine weather linked with question no. 6.

Mr. Brown

I relate it to question no. 6, Mr. Speaker. In precisely eight minutes' time, a meeting is due to start at Birtley in Tyne and Wear which will guarantee squalls for the Minister and his colleagues in future.

Mr. Goodhart

As you said before, Mr. Speaker, I should congratulate you rather than—in this case—the hon. Member for Newcastle upon Tyne. West (Mr. Brown).