HC Deb 08 April 1981 vol 2 cc936-7
2. Mr. Douglas

asked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will make a statement on his assessment of the rate of growth of manufacturing industry in Scotland in the year 1981–82.

The Secretary of State for Scotland (Mr. George Younger)

Budget forecasts suggest that United Kingdom manufacturing output might be 6 per cent. lower in 1981 than in 1980, but also that some recovery in the second half of this year is likely. On the basis of recent trends, I would expect activity in Scottish manufacturing industry to move broadly in line with that in the United Kingdom.

Mr. Douglas

Is the Secretary of State suggesting that the recession is bottoming out in Scotland? How much investment will be made in manufacturing industry in 1981–82? Other nations are investing at the bottom of the recession. We want to be stronger than them rather than weaker, as is likely to be the case under this Government.

Mr. Younger

I appreciate the hon. Gentleman's point. It seems to be the general view—and it is our advice—that the recession will bottom out some time during the year. The evidence suggests that Scotland's performance is at least no worse than that of the United Kingdom. It is hoped that Scotland will emerge more strongly from this recession than from any previous recession.

Mr. Gordon Wilson

Does the Secretary of State not accept that one of the problems facing the Scottish economy is lack of indigenous financial control? Therefore, will he make representations immediately to his right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Trade about the intended takeover of the Royal Bank of Scotland, because extreme damage would be done to Scotland if the bank were to fall into the hands of financial barracudas from overseas?

Mr. Younger

I have been concerned at the events of recent days. I have seen the chairman of the bank on a number of occasions, and I have been in touch with my right hon. Friend, who must decide whether this matter should be referred to the Monopolies and Mergers Commission.

Mr. Peter Fraser

Has my right hon. Friend had time to consider the analysis of the Chemical Industry Association of capital investment intentions in Scotland over the next three years, which shows that, while there will be a decline in the United Kingdom as a whole, there will be a 27 per cent. increase in capital investment in Scotland? Does he agree that an emphasis on that style of confidence in the Scottish economy would generally help us much more than the constant carping which we hear from the Opposition?

Mr. Younger

I am grateful to my hon. Friend and I entirely agree with what he says. That analysis not only shows that there are signs of an investment revival in Scotland, but also that it is directly associated with North Sea oil development, which takes a great deal of Government money in various ways.

Mr. Millan

Is the right hon. Gentleman aware of the widespread concern about the Royal Bank takeover, particularly following the second bid? It would be completely unforgiveable if that major Scottish institution went out of Scottish control without a reference to the Monopolies and Mergers Commission and without those bids being stopped by both the commission and the Minister. What is the right hon. Gentleman's own view on this? Is he pressing for a reference?

Mr. Younger

As the right hon. Gentleman knows, it is not customary for a Minister to reveal his representations to other members of the same Government. However, as I have made clear, I have been in touch with my right hon. Friend, who must make the decision.