§ 3. Mr. Whiteheadasked the Secretary of State for Employment what is his Department's analysis of the underlying unemployment trends in Great Britain in the current year and in 1981.
§ The Under-Secretary of State for Employment (Mr. Jim Lester)Unemployment has been rising in recent months and most forecasts agree that it will continue to rise in the near future. Changes in unemployment in the future depend 229 on a number of factors, the most important being the level of pay settlements and developments in world trade.
§ Mr. WhiteheadIs the Under-Secretary aware that all the signs are that by mid-term in the Government's life unemployment will still be rising in manufacturing industry in the most productive parts of the country, such as that which I represent? Is not that a total condemnation of the Government's strategy?
§ Mr. LesterIt certainly is not a total condemnation of the Government's strategy. Our strategy is the only one which is likely to provide secure employment in the future.
§ Mr. Kenneth CarlisleDoes my hon. Friend agree that employment trends will improve if people are encouraged to retire earlier? Therefore, will the Government consider introducing earlier voluntary retirement?
§ Mr. Lesterhe job release scheme is designed to that end. The scheme is reviewed annually and it can be extended if needed.
§ Mr. Robert C. BrownIs the Under-Secretary aware that the Northern region, which has always had more than its fair share of unemployment, is rapidly becoming a disaster area? Will he concede that it is high time that the Government did more in terms of temporary employment schemes, and so on?
§ Mr. LesterI am pleased to tell the hon. Gentleman that I was in the Northern area on Saturday, presenting awards to apprentices who are looking ahead to the future in the Northern area in their professions. I recognise that there are great difficulties in the regions. It would be wrong to pretend otherwise. Our policy is to try to assist the regions in terms of infrastructure and by concentrating our aid. That is the only way to help the regions when the economy revives.
§ Mr. Peter LloydWhen my hon. Friend is considering unemployment trends will he make an estimate of what level it would have reached if Labour's electioneering scheme for vast deficit-financed public expenditure had been adhered to, with the inevitable consequence of even higher inflation and even more punitive interest rates?
§ Mr. LesterSome of us can remember that in the first year of the last Labour Government—1975–76—unemployment was increased by 478,000.