§ 8. Mr. Rookerasked the Secretary of State for Social Services if he remains satisfied with his forecast of price increases for November on which he based the retirement pension increase.
§ Mr. PrenticeYes, Sir.
§ Mr. RookerDoes the Minister accept that in Committee recently the Secretary of State cast doubt on his forecast of 16½ per cent? Will he accept that if an allowance were made for the shortfall that occurred last November under a law that was not changed until last week, if an allowance were made for the 54-week change, and if an allowance were made to take account of an inflation rate of 24 per cent. in November, a married couple should receive £2.20 a week more 1232 in November than they will receive under the Government's proposals?
§ Mr. PrenticeMost of the hon. Gentleman's supplementary question included a series of rapid-fire questions. I shall look at the figures and see whether I can do the arithmetic. With regard to the first part of the hon. Gentleman's question, I have checked on what my right hon Friend said in Committee. In dealing with the rate of inflation he said that we would have to wait and see. He said earlier today—and I endorse it—that we expect the rate of inflation to slow down between now and November.
§ Mr. Peter BottomleyIs it not correct that the rate of inflation will be at 20 per cent. in November only if people at work press for large pay increases on a continuous basis? Those who would like the rate of inflation to be at 16½ per cent. in November will do everything that they can to keep down the rate of pay increases.
§ Mr. PrenticeI agree with my hon. Friend. The best service that hon. Members can perform for pensioners and other recipients of national insurance is to argue strongly for restraint in wage and salary claims in the coming year.
§ Mr. Andrew F. BennettDoes the Minister agree that if he has got the inflation rate right at 16½ per cent. in November, he can give a categorical assurance now that if there is a shortfall the Government will make it up, because there would not be any shortfall? If he is not prepared to give that assurance, that must mean that he has no confidence in his estimate of the inflation rate in November, and that all that he wants to do is to delay letting pensioners know by just how much more he will rob them by not raising the rate in line with inflation.
§ Mr. PrenticeNo, Sir. No Government can be absolutely certain in June what the inflation rate will be in November. No Government would make a hypothetical assumption that the existing estimates are wrong, and therefore they must make firm statements about what will happen if they turn out to be different.
§ Mr. OrmeIs the Minister not aware, however, that there was a shortfall last 1233 November of 1.6 per cent., that the Government are robbing pensioners of two weeks' justifiable increase this year, and that if the rate of inflation is over 16½ per cent. pensioners will be hit again? My hon. Friends are right to press the Government, in view of the treatment that they are giving to pensioners.
§ Mr. PrenticePensioners will be aware that last November we uprated pensions and other benefits by almost 2 per cent. more than the statutory obligation, in order to make good a shortfall that had occurred under the Labour Government's arrangements, so our record on this matter is good. These matters are never the subject of categorical assurances in advance. If there is a shortfall, the matter will be considered when we know about it. We shall know about it by about the middle of December, when we shall have the November RPI figures.