3. Woolmerasked the Secretary of State for Industry what annual rate of change he expects for 1980–81 and 1981–82 in productivity, output and jobs in manufacturing industry.
§ Sir Keith JosephUnknowable: the assumptions made for the Financial Statement and Budget Report were published in them. The outcome will depend on world trade, the effectiveness of management, the co-operation and understanding of their own interests of wage earners—in short, upon our competitiveness.
§ Mr. WoolmerDoes not that reply seek to conceal the substantial decline expected in manufacturing industry, in output and in employment? If these forecast falls are judged a success of policy, what would convince the right hon. Gentleman that he is failing? What part is the right hon. Gentleman playing in the discussions with the TUC and the CBI on the future use of North Sea oil revenues for the benefit of industry, and what view does he take upon that important matter?
§ Sir K. JosephNo, the Government are not shirking the publication of some assumptions on which the Budget was based, but the hon. Member goes beyond assumptions and asks for my personal opinion. The margins of error in this area of forecasting are so wide that my personal opinion is not relevant. I do not have a personal opinion on these difficult matters. We have a dopted certain 948 assumptions for the purpose of the Budget. They have been published. There are regular discussions with the CBI and the TUC and others; and next week, at the NEDC, the subject to which the hon. Gentleman refers will inevitably come up.
§ Mr. James LamondHas the right hon. Gentleman noticed that the disastrous loss of jobs in the textile industry has moved into the textile machinery manufacturing industry and that firms such as Muschamps in Oldham and the even more famous Stone-Platts firm, which has been in Oldham for almost 150 years, are to close at the end of this year? Does he intend to stand by and allow that sort of thing to continue?
§ Sir K. JosephI know that there are difficulties in a number of parts of the textile machinery industry, but the hon. Member's assumption that the Government can do something about what is essentially the combined effect of management effectiveness and work force cooperation is misplaced.
§ Sir Brandon Rhys WilliamsIn view of the likelihood that people in manufacturing industry, particularly middle management, will have to change their jobs more frequently in coming years, will my right hon. Friend require the Occupational Pensions Board to make recommendations as to the way in which people changing jobs in mid-career can fully protect their pension rights in private schemes?
§ Sir K. JosephMy hon. Friend and I have been dancing a minuet around this difficult subject for nearly 20 years. I shall certainly speak to the relevant Minister about what he has said.
§ Mr. John SilkinDoes the right hon. Gentleman maintain that the Government have no part whatever to play in any of these matters—that the high exchange rate, the historically highest interest rate in our history and the rigid reduction in investment imposed by the Government have no effect upon industry? If so, is he not aware that practically every reliable economist today, along with the CBI and the TUC, deeply disagrees with him?
§ Sir K. JosephAn alternative policy which interfered with the exchange rate, which sought to hold down interest rates and which subsidised investment further 949 would make matters worse. The basic fact is that large numbers of individuals are misguidedly pricing themselves and their fellow workers out of jobs.
§ Mr. SilkinIs it possible——
§ Mr. SpeakerOrder. I had not called the right hon. Gentleman. Mr. Silkin.
§ Mr. SilkinI apologise, Mr. Speaker. I am afraid that I was provoked. Is the Secretary of State saying that things could be worse than they are at the moment? If so, he does not know what is happening to British industry in practically every sector.
§ Sir K. JosephYes, things certainly could be worse than they are at present. The adoption of the policies implicit in the statements of the right hon. Gentleman and his right hon. Friends would make inflation, and therefore unemployment and interest rates, much worse.