HC Deb 01 April 1980 vol 982 cc196-7
13. Mr. Hooley

asked the Secretary of State for Education and Science what estimate has been made of the demand for places in higher education by the 18 and 19-year-old age groups in 1984 and 1985.

Dr. Boyson

No precise estimate of demand exists, but if provision is made in 1984 and 1985 at the current level the number of young new home entrants to higher education should represent about the same percentage of the 18-year-old age group as now—around 12 per cent.

Mr. Hooley

Is the Minister aware that his answer is astounding that no estimate exists only three or four years before these students are to go into higher education? Is he also aware that the excuse about falling numbers that he is now making for primary and secondary schools will not apply in the years to which he has referred because rolls in those years will be reaching a peak? Is he aware that he should be financing staff, equipment and buildings now to provide for the future?

Dr. Boyson

No estimates exist because estimates have been constantly wrong when they have been made. There has been a tendency always to overestimate. The number of 18-year-olds going on to higher education has fallen year by year as a percentage of that age group. The percentage of 18-year-olds going on to higher education fell every year during the administration of the previous Labour Government. The number obtaining A-levels was not what had been expected. The number obtaining A-levels and wishing to go on to higher education fell. The percentage of 18-year-olds going on to higher education during 1974–75 was 13.6. By 1978–79 it had fallen to 12.4 per cent.

Mr. Christopher Price

Is the Minister telling the House that he is making no calculation, and has made no public expenditure forecast, of the numbers going on to higher education during these years? As the Secretary of State said recently that universities could recruit as many Saudi Arabians as they could get hold of, is he including overseas students in any forecasts, or has he ceased to do that?

Dr. Boyson

The estimates exist in the projections that were announced last week, when we said that we were engaging in level funding for the maintained and university sectors. That means that it is likely that similar numbers will go to universities and polytechnics in 1984 and 1985 as are entering those institutions now. By the autumn we shall know what the foreign student intake is to be. Even if the fall in intake was 5,000, not one penny less of Government grant would go to universities this year.