Unemployment Forecasts (Hansard, 6 November 1979)

§ 5. Mr. Winnick
asked the Secretary of State for Employment if he will estimate the level of unemployment within the next 12 months.

§ The Secretary of State for Employment (Mr. James Prior)
No, Sir. But I have made no secret of my view that over the next year or so unemployment will rise.

§ Mr. Winnick
Will not the Government's policy of reducing public expenditure cause a sharp increase in unemployment all over the country? How many in the community will lose their jobs, security and peace of mind as a direct result of the Government's policy?

§ Mr. Prior
The hon. Gentleman must know from past experience that cutbacks in public expenditure do not necessarily lead to increases in unemployment—[HON. MEMBERS: "Oh."]—because in many respects the private sector is able to take up the slack. That is precisely what happened in 1976, and it could be repeated this time.

§ Mr. Ralph Howell
Does my right hon. Friend agree that the high vacancy figures, particularly in the London area, prove that there is considerable voluntary unemployment? What is his latest estimate of voluntary unemployment? If he has no such estimate, will he assure the House that he will immediately investigate this matter?

§ Mr. Prior
Obviously more people are taking longer to return to employment after a period of unemployment than used to happen a few years ago. Therefore, there is evidence of a good deal of voluntary unemployment. That affects not only the London area, but the whole country. It is not easy to get at these figures, as my hon. Friend knows. However, no one in the House should doubt that, whereas many people genuinely seeking work are unable to get it, there are large numbers of vacancies with, on paper, large numbers of unemployed people, yet strangely enough, the jobs are not being filled.

§ Dr. Bray
Is the Secretary of State aware that all of us who have been doing our damndest to get the Hunterston ore terminal open are grateful for the statement that he made this morning that he will initiate the statutory procedures for the registration of Hunterston under the National Dock Labour Scheme? Is he further aware that that will immediately save thousands of jobs in Scotland?

§ Mr. Prior
We can be grateful only when people settle their differences quickly and unemployment does not result. Britain is not in a sufficiently strong position to withstand a five-month strike, or lockout—or whatever one may call it—resulting from an inter-union dispute. We cannot afford the luxury of inter-union disputes or disputes between employers and employees.

§ Mr. Budgen
Will my right hon. Friend comment on the article in The Guardian yesterday by Mr. Layard that the separation of the offices that pay unemployment benefit from jobcentres has increased the number of those who appear to be unemployed by reducing the pressure that should be put on those who are work-shy or who have secret jobs?

§ Mr. Prior
As with all these articles, I am having that one carefully examined. 207 I do not wish to comment without a much fuller examination than the article perhaps undertook.

§ Mr. Sheerman
Is the Minister aware that the number of young women and girls out of work is increasing, and that the figure is greater than for young boys? In my constituency, that is particularly true. We are concerned with the wool textile industry, and present Government policies are sending that industry into rapid decline. The number of jobs in the mending and ancillary trades is decreasing. Unless the Government take some action, the whole industry will be ruined.

§ Mr. Prior
No one doubts that there are serious problems ahead, some caused by the decline of old industries, and at present new industries are not coming forward to take their place. Regrettably we are entering a pretty fierce world recession, with the number of unemployed already twice what it was in 1974. The outlook is pretty bleak.