§ 25. Mr. David Priceasked the Secretary of State for Trade what is his latest estimate of the likely growth in United Kingdom exports from 1977 to 1980, taking into account the probable effects of the Iranian revolution.
§ Mr. MeacherNo official forecasts have been published covering the period to the end of 1980.
§ Mr. PriceDoes the Minister agree that, in view of what happened in Iran, where we have £750 million worth of exports at risk, the majority in manufactured goods, and also in view of the fact that other OECD countries have an even bigger stake in their exports to Iran, this is bound to have a ripple effect on 28 world trade? Therefore, would we not be prudent to lower our estimates of what is likely to be the increase in world trade in the foreseeable future?
§ Mr. MeacherThat is entirely fair comment. Iran accounts for about 2 per cent. of our total exports. Other countries have deeper involvement in the Iranian market and therefore stand to lose more. It explains why the ECGD has withdrawn cover from new Iranian buyers. I am encouraged by the resumption of oil production on 5 March and also by the fact that the governor of the central bank of Iran stated that his Government intend to honour their commitments.
§ Mr. MeacherThere are good commercial reasons in the interests of British industry why the commitment of the ECGD in any market is kept confidential.