§ 10. Mr. Formanasked the Secretary of State for Energy whether he is satisfied that his Department is making a sufficiently large allowance for energy savings in its forecasts of final energy consumption by the end of the century.
§ Dr. John CunninghamThe Department's forecasts contained in the recent Green Paper allow for a 24 per cent. reduction in the final demand for energy below the level it might otherwise have reached by the end of the century. This provides for a reduction in primary energy demand of about 100 million tons of coal equivalent and includes the effect of higher fuel prices as well as Government action. I am satisfied that this represents a reasonable allowance on the basis of present knowledge.
§ Mr. FormanCan the hon. Gentleman confirm that his Department's forecasters are also looking at the low energy scenario put forward by the International Institute for Environment and Development, which strongly suggests that the previous one-to-one relationship between economic growth and energy growth is no longer a reliable guide to future policy?
§ Dr. CunninghamYes, Sir. I can confirm not only that we are looking at it but that we are having discussions with the institute and others who are producing low energy scenarios. It is right and proper that we should be doing so. However, we do not accept all that has been 957 contained in preliminary notices about that report, as in some newspaper reports published a little while ago.
§ Mr. HooleyIs my hon. Friend aware that in the period from 1960 to 1976 the consumption of energy in the domestic sector was virtually static, according to the consultation document, despite the fact that standards have increased and we have 2½ million extra domestic dwellings? Will he take this into account when making calculations about increased demand and rising standards of living?
§ Dr. CunninghamYes. We take such facts into account. One of the fundamental differences between our forecasting and that contained in some of the other documents is that we base our forecasts on trends whereas some of the other studies have been based on single years.
§ Mr. GrayWhat account has the Department taken in its estimates of possible heat and power schemes?
§ Dr. CunninghamWe are expecting a full report on the potential of combined heat and power schemes. We had a preliminary report last year. This will be updated and published. I hope, in the not too distant future, in much greater detail. We shall then assess the situation.