HC Deb 09 March 1978 vol 945 cc1579-81
1. Mr. Andrew F. Bennett

asked the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland what estimates are available to him of the likely variations of the labour force in Northern Ireland for the next 10 years; and by how much he expects an increase due to school leavers, and women wishing to return to work, in each of the next 10 years.

The Minister of State, Northern Ireland Office (Mr. J. D. Concannon)

The most recent projections of the Northern Ireland labour force were prepared in 1974 and are currently being revised. On the basis of the 1974 calculations the Northern Ireland labour force is projected to increase by 10.7 per cent. between 1978 and 1988, from 616,000 to 682,000.

The numbers of school leavers seeking employment are expected to increase until 1982 and then to decrease in line with the fall in the birth rate since 1964.

Information on the numbers of women wishing to return to work is not available. However, the labour force estimates project an increase of 24,000 between 1978 and 1988 in the numbers of married women in the labour force.

With permission, I shall supply further details in the Official Report.

LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS FOR NORTHERN IRELAND BASED ON CENSUS OF POPULATION 1971
Thousands
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
Males 408 411 414 417 421 427 431 435 439 444 450
Females 208 210 215 214 219 220 222 223 227 229 232
(Married Females) (106) (108) (112) (113) (117) (117) (120) (123) (126) (127) (130)
TOTAL 616 621 629 631 640 647 653 658 666 673 682
Source: Derived from DE Gazette April 1974 P304–310.
Mr. Bennett

I thank my right hon. Friend for that reply. Is he aware that I am particularly concerned about the problem facing younger school leavers over that period? What steps is he taking to persuade employers to increase the number of apprenticeships between now and 1982 to take into account the fact that there will be a decline in the number of school leavers later?

Mr. Concannon

I implore my hon. Friend to keep this matter in the context of Northern Ireland because in percentage terms the problem is not as severe as it is in the rest of the United Kingdom. We calculate that our apprenticeship schemes are about 10 times better than in the rest of the United Kingdom. We have increased training scheme places from 4,000 to 6,000 per year.

Rev. Ian Paisley

How many places will be available in the various training schemes over this period?

Mr. Concannon

We have been running training schemes at the rate of 4,000 places a year and we are increasing this by 50 per cent. to 6,000 a year over this period.

Mr. Kilfedder

Will my right hon. Friend substantially increase the rates of the educational maintenance allowance? Will he make the payments directly to the students in order to encourage them either to stay on at school after they are 16 or to attend technical college up to the age of 19, instead of forcing them into the soul-destroying experience of signing on the dole?

Mr. Concannon

The problem in Northern Ireland is greater than in the rest of the United Kingdom. About 3½ per cent. more people are employed today than in 1966. But the problem in Northern Ireland is that an extra 7½ per cent. have come on to the job market.

Following is the information:—

SCHOOL LEAVERS SEEKING EMPLOYMENT
Year 16–19 years old seeking employment Total 16–19 age groups (per Government Actuaries Department)
1978 … … … … 15,600 111,400
1979 … … … … 15,700 113,000
1980 … … … … 15,800 114,400
1981 … … … … 15,900 116,000
1982 … … … … 16,000 117,300
1983 … … … … 15,900 117,800
1984 … … … … 15,800 117,800
1985 … … … … 15,500 116,200
1986 … … … … 15,100 114,400
1987 … … … … 14,800 112,900
1988 … … … … 14,500 111,700