HC Deb 29 June 1978 vol 952 cc1565-7
16. Mr. Alan Clark

asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is the estimate for (a) manufacturing production, and (b) import of goods and services, for the 12 months to mid-1979, based on a projection of existing figures.

Mr. Robert Sheldon

The Government's forecasts of manufacturing production and of imports of goods and services were set out in table 4 of the Financial Statement and Budget Report.

Mr. Clark

Will the right hon. Gentleman tell the House whether that is the main forecast? They were not set out clearly in the Red Book. They were set out in two alternatives—a normal forecast and a stronger forecast. Is it not a fact that in one case—that of imports—it is a weaker forecast that is likely?

Mr. Sheldon

I do not think that anyone can doubt that the general level of imports is likely to be higher at a time of expansion than at another time, but it is within the capacity of the forecast that we announced, and we should note, too, the improvements in the other indicators that I mentioned, which give rise to a cautious optimism, which I believe to be entirely justified.

Mr. Ron Thomas

Is my right hon. Friend aware that a little more than 10 years ago 30 per cent. of our imports were finished and semi-finished manufactured goods and that now they represent almost two-thirds of our total import bill? As the party which believes in planning and priorities, does not my right hon. Friend think that we should have a planned trade policy rather than leave it to multinational companies and the market mechanism?

Mr. Sheldon

I shoud be more convinced by that statement if I believed that as a result of that we would see a significant amount of investment over such a short period of time. I accept my hon. Friend's point about the high level of manufactured imports. This is a general consequence in most industrialised countries. We need to see that our levels of manufactured exports increase to compensate for this.

Mr. Raison

Is there yet any glimmering of improvement in output per person employed in manufacturing industry, which has been such an abysmal feature in the past four years?

Mr. Sheldon

I have not the latest figures before me. However, the hon. Member will know that I gave the improvements in production as a whole and, bearing in mind the steady level of employment, that obviously presupposes an improvement in productivity, which we must hope will continue and improve still further.

Mr. Ioan Evans

Has my right hon. Friend seen the predictions made in one of the forecasts today about future unemployment? Should not the Government look seriously at the possibility of selective import controls to deal with certain industries, such as our electronics industry? Is not this action which the Government will have to take in the end?

Mr. Sheldon

We have been active in promoting selective import controls in certain areas, and there are others that can be looked at from time to time. However, in the main, generalised import controls have been reduced both by international organisations and by Britain.