HC Deb 29 June 1978 vol 952 cc1555-6
7. Mr. Michael Spicer

asked Mr. Chancellor of the Exchequer in which quarter of 1978 or 1979 he expects the rate of inflation to begin to rise again.

Mr. Joel Barnett

As a result of Government action on pay and prices, the rate of inflation is now likely to remain broadly stable until the end of the year. Beyond that, the outlook depends critically upon the rate of earnings increase after 31st July.

Mr. Spicer

Since every economic commentator, with the exception of the Chief Secretary and the Secretary of State for Prices and Consumer Protection, believes that the rate of inflation will rise at the end of this year, may we assume that the Chief Secretary will be advising his right hon. Friend the Prime Minister to hold a General Election in the autumn, as that may be the last time that the Government will be able to con the people that all is well?

Mr. Barnett

It is certainly not true that all outside, experts—if that is the right word—on these matters believe that the rate of inflation will be in double figures this year. I note the view of Conservative Members, and I also note the hon. Gentleman's urgent desire to test these matters in the country. I shall give appropriate advice to the Prime Minister.

Mr. Ioan Evans

Has my right hon. Friend noticed that in recent years, when we have been talking about the retail price index and inflation, there has been a chorus from Opposition Members referring to 8.4 per cent.? In view of the fact that the figure is now 7.7 per cent., will my right hon. Friend remind us what the figure was when the Conservatives left office?

Mr. Barnett

That is an interesting question, and the figure just happens to be in my mind. It was 13.2 per cent.

Mr. Lawson

Is the Chief Secretary aware that his right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer has been quoted as saying that he wants to be to economic forecasters what the Boston strangler was to door-to-door salesmen? Has he informed the Secretary of State for Prices and Consumer Protection of this ambition?

Mr. Barnett

I am sure that my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Prices and Consumer Protection will know about the ambitions of every other colleague in the Cabinet.