§ Q2. Mr. Wardasked the Prime Minister if he will place in the Library a copy of his public speech on 5th February to the Birmingham Chamber of Commerce on industry and commerce.
§ The Prime MinisterI did so, Sir, on 10th February.
§ Mr. WardHas my right hon. Friend seen today's unemployment figures, which show a continuing rise—students apart—over the figures that he described as a tragic waste in his Birmingham speech? Does he accept that although measures already taken are welcomed in my constituency there is deepening concern that further measures are needed soon if a deterioration in the job situation is not to be found in the domestic electrical appliance industry?
§ The Prime MinisterIn the speech that I made at Birmingham I referred to some encouraging signs. In that I was supported by most industrialists present. I said that the unemployment problem would take longer to deal with. Although we cannot draw too much from one month's figures, my hon. Friend will have noticed today that against an average weekly increase of 10,600 unemployed in the last three months of last year, the weekly increase in the past five weeks has been just over 4,000. It is still an increase, but less that some expected. My hon. Friend will note that unfilled vacancies have started to increase, overtime has risen, and short time working has fallen. However, I have not changed the view that I expressed at Birmingham, that it will take some time before employment figures fall.
§ Q3. Mr. Wyn Robertsasked the Prime Minister if he will place in the Library a copy of his public speech, on 5th February 1976, to the Birmingham Chamber of Commerce on economic policy.
§ The Prime MinisterI refer the hon. Member to the reply that I have just given, Sir, to my hon. Friend the Member for Peterborough (Mr. Ward).
§ Mr. RobertsIn his speech the Prime Minister urged industrialists to invest now and be ready for the upturn. To what extent is that possible, bearing in mind his admission in the same speech that the public sector is overloading resources and that the Government are not planning cuts until 1977–78?
§ The Prime MinisterIntelligent industrialists, such as those whom I addressed, see advantage in going for 184 investment now and not waiting until constraints appear in a period of recovery.
§ Mr. LoydenDoes my right hon. Friend agree that the twin problems of unemployment and rising living costs are bearing heavily upon the working class of this country, which means that they are carrying the greater burden of the economic crisis that we face? Does he not agree that the Government should alter policy directions to take that into account?
§ The Prime MinisterA very large proportion of the people of this country, at different levels of income, have suffered both from unemployment and inflation which are two closely connected questions. They are a result, first, of worldwide inflation and depression—the reasons for which hon. Members know—and, secondly, of particular factors in this country which began well before this Government came to office.
§ Mr. SpeakerMr. Peter Morrison.
§ Mr. Peter MorrisonQuestion No. Q3.
Q4. Mr. Morrisonasked the Prime Minister whether he will place in the Library a copy of his public speech on economic policy, on 5th February 1976, in Birmingham, to the Birmingham Chamber of Industry and Commerce.
§ The Prime MinisterI refer the hon. Member to the reply which I gave earlier today, Sir, to my hon. Friend the Member for Peterborough (Mr. Ward).
§ Mr. MorrisonDoes the Prime Minister recall his reference in that speech to
cruel delusions perpetrated on the British people"?Does he not agree with me and, indeed, some of his hon. Friends, apparently, that the cruellest delusion of all is the fact that unemployment, on a seasonally adjusted basis, is rising still, thanks to a Labour Government?
§ The Prime MinisterNo, Sir, I do not agree at all with the hon. Gentleman's carefully prepared supplementary to the wrong Question, because I answered that particular point in answer to the previous Question, which he thought that he was asking.
§ Mr. PardoeHas the Prime Minister seen the forecast by the Henley Centre 185 for Forecasting that in the next boom—in 1978—if it comes, the lowest level of unemployment will be 850,000? Does he accept that forecast, and does he recognise that it is bound to come to pass unless the norm for the next phase of the pay policy is zero?
§ The Prime MinisterNo, Sir, I do not accept that estimate, but I think that all of us have observed that for about 20 years now the period of boom has been shorter and the unemployment figure, at the peak and the trough of the boom, has been growing worse. This is one reason why, as I said in answer to a previous question, I think that I was right in that speech in calling for people to even out their investment decisions and to start investing before the constraints on the boom appear.
§ Mr. John MendelsonThe Prime Minister may be correct in not accepting just any wild forecast that cannot be soundly based for a period of 14–16 months ahead, but does he not now accept that the further figures of 22,000, in the basic figure of these seasonally adjusted figures, is a very serious development, as shown in the figure published today? Does it not mean that he must now ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer urgently to take measures—because it will take 12–14 months before new jobs can result from such measures—to have controlled reflation and certain import controls which are now absolutely inevitable?
§ The Prime MinisterI do not agree with the final prescription of my hon. Friend. I do agree that a figure of 22,000—even though at a much lower rate of increase than recently—is very serious. In referring to my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer, my hon. Friend will be aware that he has announced measures in the House within the last two weeks which could not possibly have affected the figures published today.
§ Mrs. ThatcherThe Prime Minister has referred several times to the need to have resources for new investment, but bearing in mind that the taxpayer will have to pay extra taxes to meet the interest on the debt mountain that his Government have created, where does he think those resources will come from?
§ The Prime MinisterThe right hon. Lady will be aware of a significant improvement of liquidity in industry over the past year. She will no doubt have seen that last Saturday there was a comment on this very question of hers, in which it was said that
The real shock has been the debt service burden. It is not one for which the Government can be blamed altogether since it is partly because of the Chancellor's admirable determination not to print the money required.The right hon. Lady's Government printed money and started off the inflation.
§ Mrs. ThatcherOnce again the Prime Minister has avoided the question. Is he aware that his Government, in the next four years, will be spending more—[Interruption.]
§ Mr. SpeakerOrder. The preambles of other hon. Members have been so long this afternoon that they nearly drove me to sleep. The right hon. Lady is entitled to be heard.
§ Mrs. ThatcherThe Prime Minister's plans are for the Government to spend more, to borrow more and to tax more. Where, therefore, will the resources be found for investing more in private industry?
§ The Prime MinisterI have made it clear—from the improved liquidity and from the very substantial help given by the Government for investment and reorganisation, which I understand—unfortunately, I missed the programme last night—the right hon. Lady said she would cut out this year, including the money for Chrysler, Leyland and the regeneration of British Industry under the National Enterprise Board.
§ Mr. HefferIn relation to the extra money that is being made available for industrial investment, will my right hon. Friend indicate whether this was to be through the channels of the National Enterprise Board, as was laid down in the 1973 Labour Party programme and manifesto, or is it once again to be a case of general moneys being made available to industry, with no public accountability whatsoever? Is my right hon. Friend also aware that in Birmingham on Saturday there was a demonstration, organised by the West Midlands Trade Union Congress Regional Council, which indicated the antagonism of the trade 187 unionists in that area to the policies being pursued by the Government at present in relation to their cuts?
§ The Prime MinisterIndeed, I read my hon. Friend's speech on that occasion, although I do not necessarily agree with it. However, with regard to the earlier part of his question, if he had listened—as I am sure he was trying to do—to the answer that I gave to the right hon. Lady the Leader of the Opposition, or if he had heard that answer, he would have heard me say that while it is the policy of the Conservatives, which they have announced, that all this money for investment through the NEB should be cut out in order to cut Government expenditure, we were going ahead with it and it was a very significant part of our programme. I should have added to that the very large sums announced by my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the Budget and on two occasions since then for helping with restructuring, modernisation and new investment in a number of industrial sectors which are falling behind.
§ Mr. ThorpeAs that Birmingham speech contained a note of optimism on the part of the Prime Minister, what message of hope will he give to the 1,400 school leavers who have been unable to gain employment since they left school in Coventry last July?
§ The Prime MinisterThe right hon. Gentleman is apparently getting a little topographical, for some reason that I have not fully understood. The answer is, of course, the measures announced to the House by my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer—I think supported by the right hon. Gentleman—two or three weeks ago. However, the right hon. Gentleman will no doubt have noticed when he was there that had we followed the prescription of certain parties opposite on Chrysler and Leyland there would have been many, many thousands—tens of thousands—more unemployed in Coventry and the surrounding area.
§ Q5. Mr. Brittanasked the Prime Minister whether he will place in the Library a copy of his public speech to the Birmingham Chamber of Industry and Commerce on 5th February 1976, on economic policy.
§ The Prime MinisterI refer the hon. Member to the reply which I gave earlier today, Sir, to my hon. Friend the Member for Peterborough (Mr. Ward).
§ Mr. BrittanThat answer has inevitably lost the first bloom of youth. However, does the Prime Minister agree that there was a reference to
cruel delusions perpetrated on the British peoplein that speech? Does he not agree that the most cruel of all delusions recently perpetrated on the British people was the suggestion in the White Paper of last week that there are going to be real cuts in public expenditure, as compared with what was actually planned by the previous Conservative Government?
§ The Prime MinisterNo, Sir, I do not accept that. I am becoming increasingly disappointed with the supplementaires put by members of the syndicate—as the whole House is, I think, becoming concerned about the way in which they are hogging Question Time, to the detriment of other hon. Members.