HC Deb 21 December 1976 vol 923 cc451-4
13. Mr. Baker

asked the Secretary of State for Employment if he will make a statement as to why unemployment statistics have not been published since October 1976.

18. Sir W. Elliott

asked the Secretary of State for Employment if he will make a statement as to why unemployment statistics have not been published since October 1976.

21. Mr. Peter Bottomley

asked the Secretary of State for Employment if he will make a statement as to why unemployment statistics have not been published since October 1976.

22. Mr. Steen

asked the Secretary of State for Employment if he will make a statement as to why unemployment statistics have not been published since October 1976.

Mr. Booth

My Department has today published an estimate of the level of unemployment in Great Britain on 9th December, based on returns and estimates covering just over half the country.

The detailed monthly unemployment statistics are not currently available due to industrial action by members of the Civil and Public Services Assocition in support of its opposition to economies in public spending. I understand that members of the national executive committee of the CPSA are to meet TUC representatives tomorrow.

Mr. Baker

Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that the feeling is growing that some Ministers are not over-anxious to get this work resumed since the accurate recording of unemployment statistics would demonstrate the complete failure of the Government's economic policies? With the figures published today in the handout from the Department it is said that the figures are subject to a wide margin of error. What statistical basis did the Minister use to advise his colleagues in the Cabinet that in is estimation unemployment could rise as high as 2 million next year?

Mr. Booth

I am not aware of my colleagues not wishing to resolve this dispute. I am, however, absolutely certain that I and the senior officers of the Department have done our utmost to resolve the dispute. I have had a long meeting with the members of the executive of the CPSA in my Department in an attempt to resolve it, and I welcome the attempt that the TUC will be making tomorrow to the same end.

The basis on which the current figures are produced involves estimates prepared by managers of Employment Services Agency offices and overall statistics returned from a number of offices. I take responsibility for advising that these figures should be published because I believe that the margin of error is not so wide as to wipe out the validity of the figures, and I believe that they will give the House what it requires, which is an indication of the way in which employment is moving on a month-to-month basis.

As to whether the figures will show the success or failure of Government policy, I was very pleased to note that they indicated that there had been a decrease of 5,000 in the total number of unemployed since publication of the October figures.

Mr. Bottomley

Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that to describe this dispute as industrial action is a fatuous euphemism which is rejected by the House? Can he say whether the words "industrial action or dispute" are included within the Department's statistics on disputes, or whether the Government's claim of a reduction in the number of industrial disputes and strikes includes this kind of damaging action?

Mr. Booth

I am aware that a number of people will draw a distinction between this dispute and a whole number of other disputes, whether or not they call this an industrial dispute. Initially the dispute raised a number of issues which had a direct bearing on the terms and conditions of CPSA employees in my Department. That is no longer the case. The general secretary of the union has made clear to me that action is being pursued in support of a campaign against Government cuts, and this is not typical of industrial disputes.

Mr. Steen

Is the Minister aware of the damaging effect of his policy in urban stress areas? What is he doing for the half a million young people under the age of 25 who have had no work for over six months? They represent the highest such figure since the war.

Mr. Booth

I am not certain whether the hon. Gentleman is referring to my policy in relation to this dispute or to measures introduced by the Department to deal with the effects of high unemployment. I accept that the dispute is having a detrimental effect. Anything which prevents us from obtaining full statistics on the effect of measures introduced makes it more difficult to judge their efficacy and to judge what changes may be needed in order to meet a changing situation. I fully accept that, but the measures taken are very properly biased in favour of assisting the young unemployed, and, therefore, I want to see them developed to the full.

Mr. Sedgemore

Is my right hon. Friend aware that the unemployment statistics provided yesterday by the Department of Applied Economics at Cambridge suggest that 2 million might be unemployed in 1979 unless the alternative strategy is followed? Will my right hon. Friend comment on that and say how those estimates compare with the estimates being carried out in his Department?

Mr. Booth

The estimates being carried out in my Department, and the information being collected to make them, indicate that the figure referred to by my hon. Friend for 1979 must be subject to an enormous margin of error. It is difficult to forecast with any degree of confidence the unemployment figure for 12 months ahead, let alone at the end of 1979. My view is that the figure gravely overestimates the position, but I am certain that the measures which my Department is taking will reach maximum effect during next year and reduce the level of unemployment below what it would otherwise be.

Mr. Prior

Now that the old-age pensioners no longer get a Christmas bonus, is the only bonus that the Government can provide for the nation the highest unemployment figures we have had at Christmas since the war? Would not a much better bonus be for the Government to get out of office?

Mr. Booth

The right hon. Gentleman strains to draw comparisons between the position of the old-age pensioners and the position of the unemployed. Everything that we can do to reduce the level of unemployment on a sound basis we must do, but we do not do that to improve the position of old-age pensioners. Their position has to be sustained and improved in any case, and the Government's record in that respect is exemplary.

Mr. Henderson

Does the Secretary of State intend to issue a further Press notice, and are any figures to be issued for Scotland? How do he and his Cabinet colleagues find it possible to devise policies when they do not even know the size of the problem?

Mr. Booth

I take the implication of the hon. Gentleman's supplementary question. Of course, it is much more difficult to devise effective policies, especially for regions and development areas, in the absence of complete statistics. I could not advise the House that it would be worth while to attempt more detailed statistics than those published in today's notice until we overcome some of the effects of the CPSA action.